[Husker] NU v OU

Sat Feb 19 22:55:12 CST 2011

Besides NU's big win over Texas, another result was good for the
Huskers.  Texas Tech won at Baylor dropping Baylor to a fifth-place
tie with Kansas St and NU at 6-6.  Baylor has a tough schedule
left, so the home loss to one of the weakest teams really hurts.
Baylor plays at Missouri and Oklahoma St and hosts Texas A&M and
Texas.  Although Baylor won at Texas A&M, Baylor has a tougher
remaining schedule than NU.

KU, Missouri, and Texas A&M, the teams ahead of NU, won and Colorado,
Oklahoma St, and Oklahoma, the teams behind NU, lost.

For the teams tied with NU, this week, Baylor visits Missouri, a
game that Missouri should win, and Kansas St visits NU.  If NU
wins and Missouri wins, then NU will be alone in fifth place in
a conference almost certain to get six bids.  If NU wins and Baylor
wins, then NU will be in a three-way tie for fourth place.  If NU
loses, they could drop to seventh (possibly tied with Colorado) if
Baylor wins or sixth (tied with Baylor and possibly Colorado) if
Missouri wins.

Given Kansas St and NU are tied, the game this Wednesday could be
the most important of the four remaining games.  If NU loses to
Kansas St, the Missouri game could be a must win.  NU controls its
destiny, with four winnable games remaining.  Winning three of the
four likely would put NU in the NCAA tournament and winning two of
the four likely would put NU on the bubble depending on its place
in the league standings.  I think if NU finished 8-8, but alone in
sixth place, they would have a good chance of getting a bid.  One
thing NU has going for it --- the win streak is now three games, so
even finishing 2-2 would leave NU 5-2 in its last seven games, with
a big win over Texas.

As they mentioned on TV, NU is now 16-1 at home.  Hopefully, they
can make it 17-1 on Wednesday.

> NU is now 17-8 and 5-6 in the conference, which is tied for sixth with
> Kansas State and Colorado.  NU has three tough home games and two
> winnable road games and is still in contention for an NCAA bid.
> 
> Sagarin has NU at #53 (Predictor) with an 82.12 rating and the
> home advantage is 3.86:.
> 
> The home games are:
>   #4 Texas     92.20 UT favored by 6.22
>  #24 Missouri  86.40 MU favored by 0.42
>  #34 Kansas St 84.39 NU favored by 1.59
> 
> The road games are:
>  #56 Colorado  81.60 NU favored by 0.52
>  #67 Iowa St   84.18 NU favored by 1.80
> 
> The games against Kansas St and Colorado are especially important, as
> if the Big 12 gets 6 or 7 NCAA bids, then those teams might be on
> the bubble with NU.  By beating them, NU not only moves up, but the
> teams it is tied with move down.  Winning at Iowa St likewise looks
> like a must win unless NU can upset Texas or Missouri.  The games
> against Texas and Missouri are important from a quality wins standpoint.
> If NU goes 3-2 in remaining games to finish 20-10 and 8-8, they will
> be on the bubble without many high quality wins.  In that context,
> the games against Texas and Missouri are important even if NU wins
> the other three.  And, if NU beats Texas or even Missouri, but loses
> one of the remaining games it is favored to win to finish 20-10 and
> 8-8, then the tournament resume still looks better.  At 8-8 in the
> conference, winning a first round game in the conference championship
> would be a must and winning at two games might be required.
> 
> Kansas St has two relatively easy home games against Oklahoma and
> Iowa St, a likely loss at Texas, and a tough home matchup with
> Missouri, so likely will have 7 or 8 wins not considering their game
> in Lincoln next week.  That game could be the difference between
> being in or out of the tournament for both teams.
> 
> Colorado (16-10, 5-6) has winnable games at Texas Tech and Iowa St
> but also must play at Kansas and face Texas at home.  So, Colorado
> likely will be 18-12 overall and 7-8 in conference when NU travels
> to Boulder.  That game could feature two 7-8 teams trying to avoid
> elimination from the NCAA tournament.
> 
> The teams just ahead of NU are Missouri (20-6, 6-5) and Baylor (17-8,
> 6-5).
> 
> Missouri has two games it should win at Iowa St and with Baylor in
> Columbia and two toughh games at Kansas St and KU in Columbia, so
> they figure to have at least 8 wins not considering their game in
> Lincoln.
> 
> Baylor's most likely wins are Texas Tech at home and Oklahoma St on
> the road.  The also have Texas A&M and Texas at home and Missouri on
> the road.  They also figure to have at least 8 wins.
> 
> The teams behind NU are Oklahoma St (16-9, 4-7) and Oklahoma (12-13,
> 4-7).
> 
> Oklahoma St travels to Kansas but could win its other games, the
> toughest of which is Texas A&M at home, to get to 8 wins.  NU did
> beat Oklahoma St by double digits in Lincoln.
> 
> Oklahoma plays Kansas St and Texas A&M on the road and Kansas at home,
> so they look to be out of the picture.  And, NU beat them in Norman.
> 
> At this point, it seems that the Big 12 will send Texas, Kansas,
> Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, and at least one other team to the NCAA
> tournament.  The current contenders for the bubble spots (in likely
> order) are: #34 Kansas St, #53 NU, #56 Colorado, and #79 Oklahoma St.
> 
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