[Husker] NU v OU

[Paul Dalen]

If the B12 only gets one bubble team in, KSU's beating KU this week
could loom very large in the decision.

On Thu, Feb 17, 2011 at 9:38 AM, Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com> wrote:
>> Exciting finish in Norman last night.
>>
>> Huskers had a 3 point lead with 17 seconds remaining. OU hit a shot
>> from the corner at the buzzer that was originally ruled a 3 but replay
>> showed his foot well over the line and the Huskers escaped with a 1
>> point win.
>
> Actually, I think the officials ruled it a 2 point goal, but reviewed
> the video just to be sure.
>
> NU is now 17-8 and 5-6 in the conference, which is tied for sixth with
> Kansas State and Colorado.  NU has three tough home games and two
> winnable road games and is still in contention for an NCAA bid.
>
> Sagarin has NU at #53 (Predictor) with an 82.12 rating and the
> home advantage is 3.86:.
>
> The home games are:
>  #4 Texas     92.20 UT favored by 6.22
>  #24 Missouri  86.40 MU favored by 0.42
>  #34 Kansas St 84.39 NU favored by 1.59
>
> The road games are:
>  #56 Colorado  81.60 NU favored by 0.52
>  #67 Iowa St   84.18 NU favored by 1.80
>
> The games against Kansas St and Colorado are especially important, as
> if the Big 12 gets 6 or 7 NCAA bids, then those teams might be on
> the bubble with NU.  By beating them, NU not only moves up, but the
> teams it is tied with move down.  Winning at Iowa St likewise looks
> like a must win unless NU can upset Texas or Missouri.  The games
> against Texas and Missouri are important from a quality wins standpoint.
> If NU goes 3-2 in remaining games to finish 20-10 and 8-8, they will
> be on the bubble without many high quality wins.  In that context,
> the games against Texas and Missouri are important even if NU wins
> the other three.  And, if NU beats Texas or even Missouri, but loses
> one of the remaining games it is favored to win to finish 20-10 and
> 8-8, then the tournament resume still looks better.  At 8-8 in the
> conference, winning a first round game in the conference championship
> would be a must and winning at two games might be required.
>
> Kansas St has two relatively easy home games against Oklahoma and
> Iowa St, a likely loss at Texas, and a tough home matchup with
> Missouri, so likely will have 7 or 8 wins not considering their game
> in Lincoln next week.  That game could be the difference between
> being in or out of the tournament for both teams.
>
> Colorado (16-10, 5-6) has winnable games at Texas Tech and Iowa St
> but also must play at Kansas and face Texas at home.  So, Colorado
> likely will be 18-12 overall and 7-8 in conference when NU travels
> to Boulder.  That game could feature two 7-8 teams trying to avoid
> elimination from the NCAA tournament.
>
> The teams just ahead of NU are Missouri (20-6, 6-5) and Baylor (17-8,
> 6-5).
>
> Missouri has two games it should win at Iowa St and with Baylor in
> Columbia and two toughh games at Kansas St and KU in Columbia, so
> they figure to have at least 8 wins not considering their game in
> Lincoln.
>
> Baylor's most likely wins are Texas Tech at home and Oklahoma St on
> the road.  The also have Texas A&M and Texas at home and Missouri on
> the road.  They also figure to have at least 8 wins.
>
> The teams behind NU are Oklahoma St (16-9, 4-7) and Oklahoma (12-13,
> 4-7).
>
> Oklahoma St travels to Kansas but could win its other games, the
> toughest of which is Texas A&M at home, to get to 8 wins.  NU did
> beat Oklahoma St by double digits in Lincoln.
>
> Oklahoma plays Kansas St and Texas A&M on the road and Kansas at home,
> so they look to be out of the picture.  And, NU beat them in Norman.
>
> At this point, it seems that the Big 12 will send Texas, Kansas,
> Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, and at least one other team to the NCAA
> tournament.  The current contenders for the bubble spots (in likely
> order) are: #34 Kansas St, #53 NU, #56 Colorado, and #79 Oklahoma St.
>
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