[Husker] NU v OU

[Skylar Dodds]

Wow, great breakdown Steve! 

-----Original Message-----
From: husker-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:husker-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of
Steve Reichenbach
Sent: Thursday, February 17, 2011 9:38 AM
To: gzimmerman5 at kc.rr.com; husker at tssi.com
Subject: Re: [Husker] NU v OU

> Exciting finish in Norman last night.
> 
> Huskers had a 3 point lead with 17 seconds remaining. OU hit a shot
> from the corner at the buzzer that was originally ruled a 3 but replay
> showed his foot well over the line and the Huskers escaped with a 1
> point win.

Actually, I think the officials ruled it a 2 point goal, but reviewed
the video just to be sure.

NU is now 17-8 and 5-6 in the conference, which is tied for sixth with
Kansas State and Colorado.  NU has three tough home games and two
winnable road games and is still in contention for an NCAA bid.

Sagarin has NU at #53 (Predictor) with an 82.12 rating and the
home advantage is 3.86:.

The home games are:
  #4 Texas     92.20 UT favored by 6.22
 #24 Missouri  86.40 MU favored by 0.42
 #34 Kansas St 84.39 NU favored by 1.59

The road games are:
 #56 Colorado  81.60 NU favored by 0.52
 #67 Iowa St   84.18 NU favored by 1.80

The games against Kansas St and Colorado are especially important, as
if the Big 12 gets 6 or 7 NCAA bids, then those teams might be on
the bubble with NU.  By beating them, NU not only moves up, but the
teams it is tied with move down.  Winning at Iowa St likewise looks
like a must win unless NU can upset Texas or Missouri.  The games
against Texas and Missouri are important from a quality wins standpoint.
If NU goes 3-2 in remaining games to finish 20-10 and 8-8, they will
be on the bubble without many high quality wins.  In that context,
the games against Texas and Missouri are important even if NU wins
the other three.  And, if NU beats Texas or even Missouri, but loses
one of the remaining games it is favored to win to finish 20-10 and
8-8, then the tournament resume still looks better.  At 8-8 in the
conference, winning a first round game in the conference championship
would be a must and winning at two games might be required.

Kansas St has two relatively easy home games against Oklahoma and
Iowa St, a likely loss at Texas, and a tough home matchup with
Missouri, so likely will have 7 or 8 wins not considering their game
in Lincoln next week.  That game could be the difference between
being in or out of the tournament for both teams.

Colorado (16-10, 5-6) has winnable games at Texas Tech and Iowa St
but also must play at Kansas and face Texas at home.  So, Colorado
likely will be 18-12 overall and 7-8 in conference when NU travels
to Boulder.  That game could feature two 7-8 teams trying to avoid
elimination from the NCAA tournament.

The teams just ahead of NU are Missouri (20-6, 6-5) and Baylor (17-8,
6-5).

Missouri has two games it should win at Iowa St and with Baylor in
Columbia and two toughh games at Kansas St and KU in Columbia, so
they figure to have at least 8 wins not considering their game in
Lincoln.

Baylor's most likely wins are Texas Tech at home and Oklahoma St on
the road.  The also have Texas A&M and Texas at home and Missouri on
the road.  They also figure to have at least 8 wins.

The teams behind NU are Oklahoma St (16-9, 4-7) and Oklahoma (12-13,
4-7).

Oklahoma St travels to Kansas but could win its other games, the
toughest of which is Texas A&M at home, to get to 8 wins.  NU did
beat Oklahoma St by double digits in Lincoln.

Oklahoma plays Kansas St and Texas A&M on the road and Kansas at home,
so they look to be out of the picture.  And, NU beat them in Norman.

At this point, it seems that the Big 12 will send Texas, Kansas,
Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, and at least one other team to the NCAA
tournament.  The current contenders for the bubble spots (in likely
order) are: #34 Kansas St, #53 NU, #56 Colorado, and #79 Oklahoma St.

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