[Husker] Game worries

[Aaron Wolfson]

Very interesting. If you believe the calculations that produced those odds,
Nebraska has a smaller chance of losing any one game than all of those other
teams (70% at Okie State being their lowest). Although I have to think if
Oklahoma ends up on the schedule, NU will be lower than 70% to win it.

Aaron


On Tue, Oct 12, 2010 at 11:45 AM, Paul Dalen <quesohusker at gmail.com> wrote:

> Wasn't referring to the odds of winning one game. I was referring to
> my hunch that in the past, the highly ranked home team beats the
> unranked visitors at least 95% of the time.
>
> Nothing but a WAG, but I doubt it's much less than that.
>
> The Stanford over USC games come around once a decade or so.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Oct 12, 2010, at 11:42 AM, Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com>
> wrote:
>
> > Massey's website actually has % odds on each remaining game.  Actually,
> > few games are 95% unless a very good team plays a very weak schedule
> > (as do Boise St and TCI).
> >
> > Here are his game-by-game odds for NU shown as a product to give the
> > likelihood of an undefeated regular season record:
> > .79 * .70 * .80 * .80 * .97 * .76 * .92 = .24
> > So, according to Massey, NU has about 1/4 shot at an undefeated record
> > in the regular season, even though their odds of winning each game are
> > very good.  Add in the Big 12 Championship game and the odds are no
> > better than 1/6.
> >
> > Contrast that with Boise St:
> > .98 * .98 * .95 * .91 * .96 * .66 * .99 = .52
> > Basically, they have one game that is much of a contest and figure to
> > have a 1/2 shot at being undefeated.
> >
> > TCU is about the same as Boise St, with one tough game:
> > .97 * .90 * .97 * .60 * .97 * 1.00 = .49
> >
> > Oregon is about the same as NU, but without a conference championship
> > game:
> > .92 * .73 * .93 * .66 * .81 * .71 = .24
> >
> > Ohio St has a better shot, again without a conference championship game:
> > .76 * .94 * .94 * .90 * .57 * .90 = .31
> >
> > LSU is Massey's highest ranked undefeated SEC team:
> > 1.00 * .52 * .42 * 1.00 * .85 * .54 = 0.10
> > And, that is without the SEC Championship game.  Ouch.
> >
> >> True. But upsets are rare. The better team rarely loses, especially at
> >> home.  I wish I had time to do the research on this, but I'll bet that
> >> when a top five team plays an unranked team at home, the ranked team
> >> wins in at least 95% of the games, maybe close to 99%.
>
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