[Husker] Game worries

[Steve Reichenbach]

Massey's website actually has % odds on each remaining game.  Actually,
few games are 95% unless a very good team plays a very weak schedule
(as do Boise St and TCI).

Here are his game-by-game odds for NU shown as a product to give the
likelihood of an undefeated regular season record:
.79 * .70 * .80 * .80 * .97 * .76 * .92 = .24
So, according to Massey, NU has about 1/4 shot at an undefeated record
in the regular season, even though their odds of winning each game are
very good.  Add in the Big 12 Championship game and the odds are no
better than 1/6.

Contrast that with Boise St:
.98 * .98 * .95 * .91 * .96 * .66 * .99 = .52
Basically, they have one game that is much of a contest and figure to
have a 1/2 shot at being undefeated.

TCU is about the same as Boise St, with one tough game:
.97 * .90 * .97 * .60 * .97 * 1.00 = .49

Oregon is about the same as NU, but without a conference championship
game:
.92 * .73 * .93 * .66 * .81 * .71 = .24

Ohio St has a better shot, again without a conference championship game:
.76 * .94 * .94 * .90 * .57 * .90 = .31

LSU is Massey's highest ranked undefeated SEC team:
1.00 * .52 * .42 * 1.00 * .85 * .54 = 0.10
And, that is without the SEC Championship game.  Ouch.

> True. But upsets are rare. The better team rarely loses, especially at
> home.  I wish I had time to do the research on this, but I'll bet that
> when a top five team plays an unranked team at home, the ranked team
> wins in at least 95% of the games, maybe close to 99%.