[Husker] NU opponent penalties or 'something rotten in the state of Nebraska'

Thu Nov 18 10:49:42 CST 2010

I did those t-tests yesterday.  Looking at average NCAA opponent penalties
per game in 2009 and 2010, and average B12 opponent penalties for 2009 and
2010, I found that there were no stastically significant differences between
how games were called across the NCAA in 2009 and 2010 or how games were
called in the B12 between 2009 and 2010.

There is also no statistically significant difference between the average
opponent penalties in the B12 in 2010 and the NCAA as a whole in 2010 or
between the B12 in 2009 and the NCAA in 2009.

I even looked at the average delta of each team between 2009 and 2010 in the
B12 and the NCAA, and found no statistically significant difference between
the average team change in opponent penalties.

(all t-tests are non-paired, unequal variances, alpha=.05)

If the issue is whether officiating across the B12 is worse or different
than the NCAA in the aggrate, then you have to conclude that there is no
there there.  However, when you look at the differences between Nebraska and
the rest of the B12 you come to another conclusion.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist.  I don't believe there is a master plot to
undermine NU this year.  I do believe, however, that the evidence suggests
Nebraska's are getting significantly fewer penalties called on them and it's
a valid question to ask why that is the case.  Every team plays differently,
which is why we look at the conference averages.  The math keeps pointing
back at the fact that when a team lines up against NU the refs call an
implausibly small number of penalties on them.

On Thu, Nov 18, 2010 at 9:57 AM, Scott Stewart <fourtwophd at gmail.com> wrote:

> Two other ways to look at the numbers would be to do a t-test to determine
> if there is a difference between the average number of penalties called
> against opponents when games are in conference (conference officials) vs.
> out of conference (non-conference officials). And an A-B-A design (Do teams
> have significantly fewer penalties called against them than their average
> on
> the games they play Nebraska.)
>
> Scott
>
> On Thu, Nov 18, 2010 at 9:48 AM, Steve Schmadeke <husker at schmadeke.com
> >wrote:
>
> >
> > "To what else could it be attributable?"
> >
> > There are some other possibilities besides the obvious.  Nebraska runs a
> > different scheme on both sides of the ball than the typical team.  We
> are,
> > by and large, not a pressure defense and our defensive lineman have been
> > schooled in different techniques for gap control than the typical
> defense,
> > so we may not be drawing as many holds as the typical team -- though that
> > was a whopper the refs missed on Steinkuhler last Saturday night against
> > Kansas.  On offense, we are primarily a running team and therefore not as
> > likely to draw as many interference and illegal contact penalties -- or
> even
> > roughing calls.  Our rush-oriented offense combined with a
> > bend-but-don't-break defense may be resulting in fewer snaps per game,
> > reducing the amount of opportunities for refs to throw flags.
> >
> > I don't know if any of these explanations are true.  To analyze those
> > possibilities would require breaking down the penalties by type and
> > situation and to normalize them according to the numbers of snaps in each
> > game.  Breaking down the analysis into smaller data sets might also drop
> us
> > down too far into the statistical noise.  While Paul's analysis shows a
> > clear, statistically significant bias (in the mathematical, not
> > conspiratorial sense) in the total number of calls made against
> Nebraska's
> > opponents, there may not be enough data to draw significant conclusions
> > about, say, non-procedural penalties called per offensive pass play.
> >
> > On Nov 18, 2010, at 5:40 AM, Paul Dalen wrote:
> >
> > > I'm a member of HuskerMax.  There was a thread yesterday about how NU
> had
> > > the lowest average opponent penalties in the B12.  I did some number
> > > crunching on it.  Here's my post to that topic.  I can't post pics to
> > this
> > > list, so you'll have to click the links to see the graphs.  I did the
> > work
> > > pretty quickly last night, and I may have takes some *ahem* liberties
> > with
> > > assumptions.  But in general, I think my analysis is sound.
> > >
> > > BLUF:  There are some statistical anomalies when you compare NU’s
> > penalties
> > > to the average of the rest of the B12’s opponents’ penalties, and when
> > you
> > > compare NU’s opponent penalties to an average of the rest of the B12
> > > penalties.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Note:  None of the averages I used in analysis include NU’s numbers.
> > All
> > > stats are from 2010.  I'm assuming that the data used conform to a
> normal
> > > distribution, which may or may not be true.  The data I used are found
> > here:
> > >
> > >
> >
> http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-penalties-per-game
> > >
> > >
> > > First, I compared NU’s per-game team penalties to an average of the
> rest
> > of
> > > the Big 12 opponent per-game penalties.  NU’s average per game
> penalties
> > are
> > > 7.1, and the rest of the Big 12’s average opponent per game penalties
> are
> > > 6.69 with a standard deviation of .92 (n=11).
> > >
> > >
> > > NU’s average of 7.1 converts to a z-score of .44, which equals a
> > probability
> > > that any random team would have a penalty average of no more than this
> of
> > > .67.  To me, this says that there is no evidence at all that the refs
> are
> > > calling more penalties on NU than they are on the rest of the B12 in
> > > aggregate.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The graph below illustrates this probability.  The top of the bell
> curve
> > is
> > > the average number of Big 12 opponent penalties, and the line between
> the
> > > blue and white areas is NU’s per game average penalties.  The closer to
> > the
> > > middle of the graph the line falls, the closer to ‘normal’ the average
> > is.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> http://lh4.ggpht.com/_elioP_aq1UY/TOSfdmk1WMI/AAAAAAAADP8/4d70P0MpyqI/s800/part%201%20penalties%20analysis.JPG
> > >
> > >
> > > The numbers become more eyebrow-raising when you compare NU’s  average
> > > opponent penalties per game to the average per game penalties of the
> rest
> > of
> > > the Big 12.  NU’s opponents’ average per game penalties are 4.3, and
> the
> > > rest of the Big 12’s average per game penalties are 6.59 with a
> standard
> > > deviation of 1.21 (n=11).
> > >
> > >
> > > NU’s average of 4.3 converts to a z-score of -1.90, which equals a
> > > probability that any random team would have a penalty average of no
> more
> > > than this of .029.  To me, this says that there is evidence that the
> refs
> > > are calling significantly fewer penalties on NU’s opponents.
> > >
> > >
> > > The graph below highlights this.  The shaded blue area is the
> probability
> > > that a random team’s opponents would be assessed an average of 4.3
> > penalties
> > > per game.    As fan and as a stats nerd, it takes significant
> suspension
> > of
> > > disbelief to accept that this average is attributable solely to chance.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> http://lh4.ggpht.com/_elioP_aq1UY/TOSfdmk1WMI/AAAAAAAADP8/4d70P0MpyqI/s800/part%201%20penalties%20analysis.JPG
> > >
> > >
> > > There is one other thing to consider.   The Big 12 averages include
> four
> > > teams that the Huskers have not faced yet, and these teams include the
> > three
> > > teams (CU, BU, A&M) with the highest per game average penalties.   If
> we
> > > perform the same calculations but exclude the teams NU has not played
> > yet,
> > > the numbers become even more eye opening.
> > >
> > >
> > > Comparing NU’s per-game team penalties to an average of the rest of its
> > Big
> > > 12 opponents' per-game penalties, NU’s average per game penalties are
> > 7.1,
> > > and the average of the rest its Big 12 opponents' per-game penalties
> are
> > > 6.69 with a standard deviation of 1.03 (n=7).
> > >
> > >
> > > NU’s average of 7.1 converts to a z-score of .40, which equals a
> > probability
> > > that any random team would have a penalty average of no more than this
> of
> > > .66.  Again, there is no difference in the number of penalties called
> on
> > NU
> > > even when you only consider the teams NU has played.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > However, when we compare NU’s  average opponent penalties per game to
> the
> > > average per game penalties of the rest of its Big 12 opponents we see
> > that
> > > NU’s opponents’ average per game penalties are 4.3, and the rest of the
> > Big
> > > 12’s average per game penalties are 6.04 with a standard deviation of
> .61
> > > (n=7).   NU’s average of 4.3 converts to a z-score of -2.85, which
> equals
> > a
> > > probability that any random team would have a penalty average of no
> more
> > > than this is .002!
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> http://lh5.ggpht.com/_elioP_aq1UY/TOSftvXGtPI/AAAAAAAADQc/JxJ4c1fDv08/s800/part%203%20penalties%20analysis.JPG
> > >
> > >
> > > While the number of penalties called on NU’s opponents seems hard to
> > accept
> > > as coincidence when compared to the entire Big 12, it’s almost 10 times
> > more
> > > likely to happen than when you look at only NU’s opponents!  In fact,
> the
> > > probability is so small as to be almost invisible on the graph.  Trust
> me
> > > though, there is a very small blue shaded portion above.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What’s this all mean?   To me, it’s clear that the per game average
> > number
> > > of penalties called on NU’s opponents is very difficult to attribute
> > solely
> > > to chance…which begs the question of “to what else could it be
> > > attributable?”  I leave it to each of you to draw your own conclusions
> > about
> > > that…as we’ve left the realms of science and entered the more
> treacherous
> > > realms of conspiracy theories.
> > >
> > >
> > > Full data and computations are here.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0By3lZgFCOqcjNzZkNmViZDctMTgxZS00ZDk4LTg3ZGMtNWZkMmNiZDcwMTU4&authkey=CMz19e4C&hl=en
> > >
> > >
> > > Thread on HuskerMax is here:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> http://www.huskermax.com/vbbs/showthread.php?10074-NU-s-oppoents-least-penalized-in-Big-12
> > .
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