[Husker] NU opponent penalties or 'something rotten in the state of Nebraska'

Thu Nov 18 08:48:40 CST 2010

"To what else could it be attributable?"

There are some other possibilities besides the obvious.  Nebraska runs a different scheme on both sides of the ball than the typical team.  We are, by and large, not a pressure defense and our defensive lineman have been schooled in different techniques for gap control than the typical defense, so we may not be drawing as many holds as the typical team -- though that was a whopper the refs missed on Steinkuhler last Saturday night against Kansas.  On offense, we are primarily a running team and therefore not as likely to draw as many interference and illegal contact penalties -- or even roughing calls.  Our rush-oriented offense combined with a bend-but-don't-break defense may be resulting in fewer snaps per game, reducing the amount of opportunities for refs to throw flags.

I don't know if any of these explanations are true.  To analyze those possibilities would require breaking down the penalties by type and situation and to normalize them according to the numbers of snaps in each game.  Breaking down the analysis into smaller data sets might also drop us down too far into the statistical noise.  While Paul's analysis shows a clear, statistically significant bias (in the mathematical, not conspiratorial sense) in the total number of calls made against Nebraska's opponents, there may not be enough data to draw significant conclusions about, say, non-procedural penalties called per offensive pass play.

On Nov 18, 2010, at 5:40 AM, Paul Dalen wrote:

> I'm a member of HuskerMax.  There was a thread yesterday about how NU had
> the lowest average opponent penalties in the B12.  I did some number
> crunching on it.  Here's my post to that topic.  I can't post pics to this
> list, so you'll have to click the links to see the graphs.  I did the work
> pretty quickly last night, and I may have takes some *ahem* liberties with
> assumptions.  But in general, I think my analysis is sound.
> 
> BLUF:  There are some statistical anomalies when you compare NU’s penalties
> to the average of the rest of the B12’s opponents’ penalties, and when you
> compare NU’s opponent penalties to an average of the rest of the B12
> penalties.
> 
> 
> 
> Note:  None of the averages I used in analysis include NU’s numbers.   All
> stats are from 2010.  I'm assuming that the data used conform to a normal
> distribution, which may or may not be true.  The data I used are found here:
> 
> http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-penalties-per-game
> 
> 
> First, I compared NU’s per-game team penalties to an average of the rest of
> the Big 12 opponent per-game penalties.  NU’s average per game penalties are
> 7.1, and the rest of the Big 12’s average opponent per game penalties are
> 6.69 with a standard deviation of .92 (n=11).
> 
> 
> NU’s average of 7.1 converts to a z-score of .44, which equals a probability
> that any random team would have a penalty average of no more than this of
> .67.  To me, this says that there is no evidence at all that the refs are
> calling more penalties on NU than they are on the rest of the B12 in
> aggregate.
> 
> 
> 
> The graph below illustrates this probability.  The top of the bell curve is
> the average number of Big 12 opponent penalties, and the line between the
> blue and white areas is NU’s per game average penalties.  The closer to the
> middle of the graph the line falls, the closer to ‘normal’ the average is.
> 
> 
> 
> http://lh4.ggpht.com/_elioP_aq1UY/TOSfdmk1WMI/AAAAAAAADP8/4d70P0MpyqI/s800/part%201%20penalties%20analysis.JPG
> 
> 
> The numbers become more eyebrow-raising when you compare NU’s  average
> opponent penalties per game to the average per game penalties of the rest of
> the Big 12.  NU’s opponents’ average per game penalties are 4.3, and the
> rest of the Big 12’s average per game penalties are 6.59 with a standard
> deviation of 1.21 (n=11).
> 
> 
> NU’s average of 4.3 converts to a z-score of -1.90, which equals a
> probability that any random team would have a penalty average of no more
> than this of .029.  To me, this says that there is evidence that the refs
> are calling significantly fewer penalties on NU’s opponents.
> 
> 
> The graph below highlights this.  The shaded blue area is the probability
> that a random team’s opponents would be assessed an average of 4.3 penalties
> per game.    As fan and as a stats nerd, it takes significant suspension of
> disbelief to accept that this average is attributable solely to chance.
> 
> 
> http://lh4.ggpht.com/_elioP_aq1UY/TOSfdmk1WMI/AAAAAAAADP8/4d70P0MpyqI/s800/part%201%20penalties%20analysis.JPG
> 
> 
> There is one other thing to consider.   The Big 12 averages include four
> teams that the Huskers have not faced yet, and these teams include the three
> teams (CU, BU, A&M) with the highest per game average penalties.   If we
> perform the same calculations but exclude the teams NU has not played yet,
> the numbers become even more eye opening.
> 
> 
> Comparing NU’s per-game team penalties to an average of the rest of its Big
> 12 opponents' per-game penalties, NU’s average per game penalties are 7.1,
> and the average of the rest its Big 12 opponents' per-game penalties are
> 6.69 with a standard deviation of 1.03 (n=7).
> 
> 
> NU’s average of 7.1 converts to a z-score of .40, which equals a probability
> that any random team would have a penalty average of no more than this of
> .66.  Again, there is no difference in the number of penalties called on NU
> even when you only consider the teams NU has played.
> 
> 
> 
> However, when we compare NU’s  average opponent penalties per game to the
> average per game penalties of the rest of its Big 12 opponents we see that
> NU’s opponents’ average per game penalties are 4.3, and the rest of the Big
> 12’s average per game penalties are 6.04 with a standard deviation of .61
> (n=7).   NU’s average of 4.3 converts to a z-score of -2.85, which equals a
> probability that any random team would have a penalty average of no more
> than this is .002!
> 
> 
> http://lh5.ggpht.com/_elioP_aq1UY/TOSftvXGtPI/AAAAAAAADQc/JxJ4c1fDv08/s800/part%203%20penalties%20analysis.JPG
> 
> 
> While the number of penalties called on NU’s opponents seems hard to accept
> as coincidence when compared to the entire Big 12, it’s almost 10 times more
> likely to happen than when you look at only NU’s opponents!  In fact, the
> probability is so small as to be almost invisible on the graph.  Trust me
> though, there is a very small blue shaded portion above.
> 
> 
> 
> What’s this all mean?   To me, it’s clear that the per game average number
> of penalties called on NU’s opponents is very difficult to attribute solely
> to chance…which begs the question of “to what else could it be
> attributable?”  I leave it to each of you to draw your own conclusions about
> that…as we’ve left the realms of science and entered the more treacherous
> realms of conspiracy theories.
> 
> 
> Full data and computations are here.
> 
> 
> https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0By3lZgFCOqcjNzZkNmViZDctMTgxZS00ZDk4LTg3ZGMtNWZkMmNiZDcwMTU4&authkey=CMz19e4C&hl=en
> 
> 
> Thread on HuskerMax is here:
> 
> 
> http://www.huskermax.com/vbbs/showthread.php?10074-NU-s-oppoents-least-penalized-in-Big-12.
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