[Husker] Early ISU odds

[Lawson, Scott R.]

Last season if someone told me NU would lose 8(?) fumbles vs Iowa State and lose I would have told them they were nuts.

Funny things can happen on Saturdays.

Scott in NY


-----Original Message-----
From: Paul Dalen [mailto:quesohusker at gmail.com] 
Sent: Monday, November 01, 2010 4:55 PM
To: Steve Reichenbach
Cc: Lawson, Scott R.; husker at tssi.com
Subject: Re: [Husker] Early ISU odds

How is ISU going to score >10 on NU?  I know what the models says, but
here's where art and common sense intersect the math...only OSU and TT
have put up more than 20 on NU in 2 years.  We have held much better
teams than ISU to under 14 points.



Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 1, 2010, at 3:03 PM, Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com> wrote:

> Massey has NU 32.8 - ISU 20.6, with probability of an NU victory 83%.
> That suggests taking ISU and 19 points, but the computers and I thought
> NU -9.5 against Missouri was too much and look what happened.
>
>> correction -NU -18,  ISU +15
>>
>> Model is based on individual team's past performances against the pred.
>> spread, hence the different numbers for different teams playing the same
>> game.
>>
>>> I built a spreadsheet predictor based on Sagarin's Predictor rankings...it
>>> says NU -19 at ISU on Saturday.
>>>
>>> download the spreadsheet here:
>>>
>>> https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0By3lZgFCOqcjNjgyNGIyNDYtYjExYi00ZGY3LWJlNzUtY2YxZjk5Nzg4ZmMx&authkey=CL27vLAD&hl=en
>>>
>>>
>>>> Iowa St. is GETTING 19 points at home... I know, I know, the line is just
>>>> to even the betting $$, but it seems like a somewhat accurate indicator of
>>>> how the games go.
>>>>
>>>> I had guessed it would be about 10-12. 19 points seems to be asking a lot
>>>> on the road!