[Husker] Early ISU odds
Steve Reichenbach
reich at inetnebr.com
Mon Nov 1 15:03:02 CDT 2010
Massey has NU 32.8 - ISU 20.6, with probability of an NU victory 83%.
That suggests taking ISU and 19 points, but the computers and I thought
NU -9.5 against Missouri was too much and look what happened.
> correction -NU -18, ISU +15
>
> Model is based on individual team's past performances against the pred.
> spread, hence the different numbers for different teams playing the same
> game.
>
> > I built a spreadsheet predictor based on Sagarin's Predictor rankings...it
> > says NU -19 at ISU on Saturday.
> >
> > download the spreadsheet here:
> >
> > https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0By3lZgFCOqcjNjgyNGIyNDYtYjExYi00ZGY3LWJlNzUtY2YxZjk5Nzg4ZmMx&authkey=CL27vLAD&hl=en
> >
> >
> >> Iowa St. is GETTING 19 points at home... I know, I know, the line is just
> >> to even the betting $$, but it seems like a somewhat accurate indicator of
> >> how the games go.
> >>
> >> I had guessed it would be about 10-12. 19 points seems to be asking a lot
> >> on the road!
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