[Husker] Notre Dame's hand forced now?

[Rod Wellman]

I've been hearing how ND still isn't convinced it wants or needs to join a conference.  But could that change in light of the most recent developments?  And if so, how fast does the Big 10 turn into a 16-team conference?

Imagine how quickly the situation is changing for Notre Dame.  All along they've been saying they are not interested in joining a conference unless they have to.  Well, the rush to 16 team super conferences might be that "have to" part of the equation.  Let's say back in April the Big10 extended offers to Texas, Notre Dame and an Eastern school, like Pitt, Syracuse, Maryland or Rutgers, with the promise that it would cap expansion at 14.  With the allure of the added TV markets, at that point, ND might have had a hard time turning the invitation down.  Well, Texas HAD to say "no", because the politics of the state wouldn't let them go without A&M and T Tech, thus the "Tech problem" referenced in the email.  So, ND was back to its original position:  that there was no compelling reason to leave.  Now, if the B10 then proceeded to offer Nebraska do you think that is enough to excite ND into joining?  I say no.  I think the B10 would love to stop for the moment at an even 12, and look to expand to 14 or 16 at a later date (2-5 years from now, maybe).  

Until....the prospect of the Pac 10 of becoming the 16 team super conference starts to become a reality.  NOW, the picture has changed again for the B10 AND for ND.  Now ND might feel like they have to join the B10 if only to not get left out of the mad scramble.  I think that now that the Pac 10 going to 16 is a distinct possibility, I don't think the B10 can be in the mindset of stopping at 12.  This development forces everybody's hand.  If Texas was smart and didn't want the B12 to collapse, they screwed up by inviting the whole Pac 10 thing into the picture (which they undoubtedly did...i.e. Pac 10 officials touring the campus a couple weeks ago).  The threat of super conferences emerging is the one thing that causes the Big 10 to rush their offer to Neb., if for nothing else to bring ND into play again, AND subsequently the B10 offers a 2nd and 3rd team, and possibly even more, ASAP.  Of all the hot air about Texas really wanting the B12 to work, they totally made all the wrong decisions in order for that to happen.  Have they even considered just replacing Neb. with another school or two or three?  If their public and private statements would have been:  "the Big 12 is strong enough to survive a team or two leaving, we'll just replace them and maybe even expand" this whole thing wouldn't have gotten so out of hand.  Instead, their public and private statements are:  "Hey Nebraska, you have to stay because if you leave we're gone and taking everybody with us to the Pac 10 so you will cause the end of the Big 12 and you don't want to do that, do you?"  Stupid Texas.

One negative effect of all this, IMHO, is the stampede to 16-team conferences.  Nebraska to the Big 10 as the final, 12th member = good. Nebraska to the Big 10 as one of 5 more additions?  Not-so-good.  I think this is what ND fears now:  that they will become part of a 16 team watered-down revenue-sharing structure.  But due to scheduling issues, they may have no choice but to join.

Rod Wellman
Sioux City, Ia.