[Husker] WBB @ Baylor

[Steve Reichenbach]

I don't think this game is a must win wrt winning the Big 12.  NU has a
clearer path --- winning out at home (including OSU and A&M) and
beating Big 12 North opponents (including KU) and Texas Tech on the
road puts NU at 14-2.  To better that, Baylor has to have nor more than
one loss against NU, A&M, OSU, and Texas at home (as well as Kansas)
and at Texas, OU, ISU, and A&M on the road.  Baylor has a much tougher
schedule and NU already has a big road win at ISU and Baylor has a
road loss at OSU.

I think this game is a big game for NCAA seedings.  Quality wins are a
factor in seeding.  NU is 3-0 against Sagarin's top 25, is 5-0 against
the top 50, and has quality road wins at Miami, Vermont, and ISU.  A
road win against Baylor could be a big factor in a top four seed
(if NU wins the Big 12).  The Big 12 is far and away the toughest
conference and if NU not only wins the Big 12 but beats Baylor on the
road, NU would have a strong case for a top four national seed.  Such
a seed would make the path to the final four a little easier.

> A little research.
> 
> Rankings: AP - BU #9, NU #11; ESPN - BU #9, NU #9
> RPI: NU #4, BU #23
> Sagarin ELO/Predictor/Rating: NU #3/5/4, BU #12/7/9
> Sagarin prediction: BU 94.66 + 4.14 (home) - NU 96.24 = BU 2.56 pts
> 
> Schedule strength: RT-RPI NU #18, BU #86
> Sagarin: NU #47, BU #112
> 
> NCAA:
> Scoring - BU #6, 83.1; NU #12, 79.1
> Defense - NU #12, 52.7; BU #25, 54.8
> Margin - BU, #2 28.3; NU #3, 26.4
> FG% - BU #2, 52.0%; NU #6, 47.4%
> DEF% - BU #3, 31.2; NU #12, 34.3%
> Rebound Margin - BU #2, 14.5; NU #12, 9.5
> Blocks - BU #1, 7.9, NU >#50, <4.7
> Fouls - BU #13, 14.1; NU >#50, >15.5
> 
> NU has no losses.
> Baylor's only losses are:
> Its opening game @Tennessee 74-65, which BU led by 2 at half and was
> outscored 50-39 in the second half.  UT was #9 at the time (and BU was
> #4), but UT is #4 now (and BU is #9).  Both teams shot poorly (BU
> 19-50, 38%; UT 27-73, 37%), but UT had 40 rebounds versus 33 and 18
> offensive rebounds versus 9.  For Baylor, Jones had 21 pts, Griner had
> 15, and only one other player scored more than 6.
> Its opening Big12 game (then unranked) @OSU 78-65, which BU led by 2
> at half and was outscored 42-27 in the second half.  Griner led BU
> with 16 points and four other players had 8-10 pts.  BU outrebounded
> OSU 51-35 and 17-10 on offensive rebounds, but OSU made 12-37 3pt
> shots while BU was 3-12.  Both teams shot around 40% overall
> 
> Baylor's only win against a top 25 team was its last game at home
> against #13 OU.  OU led at half 25-24, but BU won the second half
> 33-22.  OU shot poorly, only 30% 19-63 and 1-15 on 3pts.  BU won
> on the boards 39-23 and 11-8 offensive rebounds.  Still, BU shot
> only 42%.
> NU has two home wins against ranked opponents, #9 LSU (now #12) and
> #21 Texas, and three quality road wins @Miami (13-3), @Vermont (14-3),
> and @ISU (12-3).
> At home against LSU, NU led 41-34 at half and won 77-63.  NU shot
> 50% (27-54), held LSU to 39% 24-61 and 0-4 3pt, but was outrebounded
> 36-30 and 15-9.
> At home against Texas, NU led 50-44 at half and won 91-79.  NU shot
> 49% while UT shot 46%.  Rebounds were nearly even.  NU won at the
> line 28-34 versus 13-19.
> 
> 
> 
> > >>How do we match up against Baylor?
> > 
> > Baylor is young but talented having the #1 recruiting class in the
> > national.  First and foremost they have Brittany Griner, an athletic 6'8"
> > shot blocking, dunking machine.  She is closing in on the Big 12 season
> > shotblocking
> > record with almost half the season to go.  She had 9 blocks against
> > Oklahoma the other night.  Baylor is stocked with talent.  But they are
> > without Melissa Jones right now and she does for them what Kelsey Griffin
> > does for Nebraska.
> > She is the fulcrum of that team even with all the explosive potential that
> > Kim Mulkey has in the wings.
> > 
> > This is the next step in this early referendum on Nebraska.  There are
> > still quite a few fans and media folk in the south division who believe the
> > Huskers really just aren't that good.  They are in Norman and Stillwater
> > and College Station.  There
> > are probably fewer in Austin, although you never know with Longhorn fans.
> > There's quite a few who still believe that we are just an under-talented
> > team from up north who can't play with the 'big girls' down south.
> > Walking into Baylor and beating them there would seriously raise the
> > profile.
> 
> _______________________________________________
> husker site list
> husker at tssi.com
> http://romaine.tssi.com/mailman/listinfo/husker
>