[Husker] NU women's basketball

[Steve Reichenbach]

The Husker women can nearly close the door on the regular season title
this week while finishing only the first half of the conference schedule.
Winning both games this week would give NU a commanding lead over all
of the contenders.

NU is 6-0 with home games against OSU (NU favored by ~14 by Sagarin)
and TAMU (NU favored by ~6) to finish the first half of its conference
slate.  After than, NU's games and points favored are:
	  9 @KU
	 14 @MU
	 15 ISU
	 23 CU
	  6 @OU
	 22 MU
	 16 KU
	 16 @KSU
That is a favorable schedule with all but one game against the bottom
half of the the conference.  NU is favored in every game and NU is
favored by fewer than 10 points in only two games.  If NU wins the
games this week, it is easier to believe NU would not lose again than
to think it would lose more than two games.

First, tonight, OSU is alone in second plance at 6-1.  If NU
wins, OSU goes to 6-2 and would be effectively three games
behind NU in a two-way tie.  And, OSU still has OU, TAMU, Texas,
and ISU at home and BU ond OU on the road (ignoring TTU).
OSU's other games are:
	  4 OU
	 14 TTU
	 -4 TAMU
	-10 @BU
	  2 UT
	  6 @TTU
	  5 ISU
	 -4 @OU
OSU is the underdog in three games and favored by fewer than 10
points in 4 games.  OSU would have to go on a tear to win all of
those games and still would require NU to lose three games.  If
OSU loses even one more game, NU would have to lose four.

Then, on Saturday, TAMU is tied for fourth (although second in
Sagarin's predictor) at 3-3.  If NU wins both games this week,
then TAMU is four games back and would be effectively five games
back.  I think that likely puts them out of the picture, even
with most of it's remaining toughest games (UT, BU, and OU) at
home games but @OSU (where TAMU would be the underdog).

The current third place team is OU at 5-2, but gets NU at home
(albeit with NU favored ~6).  However, OU has a tougher week than
NU with Texas at home (OU favored by ~2) followed by OSU on the
road (OSU favored by ~4).  Then, in addition to NU, OU still has
the following games (not to mention hosting UConn).
	 -2 BU
	 12 CU
	  6 @KSU
	 -6 NU
	 -5 @UT
	-11 @TAMU
	  4 OSU
Even if OU wins both games this week and beats NU later, if NU wins
both games this week at home, NU still has a one game cushion on OU
and OU is the underdog in four remaining games and a double digit
favorite in only one game.

NU already has the tie breaker against 3-3 UT.  ISU is 4-3 and could
sneak up on NU with a win in Lincoln, but NU would still have a two
game cushion and ISU must host BU and play at OSU and KU.  KSU
is a surprise at 3-3, but even with an upset of NU in Manhattan, it
is difficult to envision KSU not losing some of its other games, e.g.,
BU, @TAMU, @UT, OU, @ISU.

Here are Sagarin's predictors.  The home court advantage is 3.79.

NU   97.26
TAMU 94.92
BU   93.48
UT   88.69
OSU  87.39
OU   87.23
ISU  86.27
KU   84.81
MU   79.50
CU   78.54
TTU  77.68
KSU  77.63