[Husker] Bowl question revisited

[Killmar, John]

USA Today has a piece on the Fiesta Bowl's unique position in picking their teams:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/2009-11-29-bcs-fiesta-bowl_N.htm


The Sugar Bowl get 1st choice.  According to USA Today, the Sugar Bowl will likely pick the loser of the Florida-Alabama game.  The Fiesta Bowl has the next pick and if Texas wins Saturday, they will likely pick Iowa.  If Nebraska wins, the Huskers go to the Fiesta Bowl.  Boise State Could be the 2nd team in the Fiesta Bowl.

John Killmar

-----Original Message-----
From: husker-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:husker-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of Steve Schmadeke
Sent: Monday, November 30, 2009 8:28 AM
To: Husker List
Subject: Re: [Husker] Bowl question revisited


I think that the Husker Locker folk somewhat overstated how
meaningless the order of the bowl slots are.

After Kansas State dropped to the Alamo Bowl after losing to Texas A&M
in the Big XII Championship Game when the Wildcats were one quarter
away from playing in the first BCS title game, the Big XII Conference
rewrote the bowl contracts to prevent a bowl from reaching down more
than one game in the standings to pick a lower team ahead of a higher
team.  While there is still a lot of flexibility for the bowls, they
are still somewhat constrained by the rules.

For example, the Cotton Bowl cannot consider taking Oklahoma, Texas
A&M or Iowa State at all because they all finished two or more games
behind Nebraska and Oklahoma State.  However, they could reach down to
pick either Texas Tech or Missouri, though either choice is unlikely
since those were the last two conference teams to appear in the Cotton
Bowl.

In practice, their choice comes down to an OSU team that got skunked
in the season finale against OU or a Nebraska team that will have just
came down to Dallas and lost to Texas.  Which is the better choice for
selling tickets and hotel space?  Which is the better choice for
getting the networks to pay a reasonable rights fee when it is time to
renew the television contract?

The Husker Locker writer seems confident that OSU is the choice in
this scenario.  I am not so sure the decision is so cut and dried.
There will certainly be a fear that the famously traveling Husker fan
base will resist making two straight trips to Dallas in the space of a
month, especially since by definition in this scenario, the first
visit will have resulted in a loss.  On the other hand, the OSU fan
base -- which is not particularly known for their fan following -- is
looking at a team that staggered down the stretch, got punched pretty
solidly in the finale and are looking towards a rebuilding year next
year after a year in which they reached the Top 10 both at the
beginning and end of the season.  How enthusiastic will they be?

While the network would like to show a nice offense, they can still
promote the potential top NFL draft pick in Suh.  And, if LSU really
does end up as the SEC representative as forecast by Husker Locker,
the network would also get to promote Pelini matching up against the
team he helped guide to a national title just two years earlier.

OSU might well be the favorite of the Cotton Bowl, but I wouldn't be
shocked if they decide to go with the Huskers, especially if they hang
tough with the Longhorns.  I think a lot depends on the nature of the
Nebraska loss that would put the Cotton Bowl representatives in the
position to make this choice.

I do agree that there is no way that the Holiday Bowl will let
Nebraska slide by their slot in favor of any of the alternate choices,
even in the face of a blowout Saturday night.

On Nov 29, 2009, at 10:04 PM, Robert Christensen wrote:

> I subscribe to Husker Locker. The following is the possible match-
> ups given various outcomes.
>
> *At Husker Locker, we try to let the bowl picture shake out a bit
> before we start handing out any predictions on the issues for
> Nebraska. Now that we've traversed ten games, we continue our weekly
> Bowl Watch. *
>
> Ready? Ready!
>
> Now, remember - when reading through this, please remember two key
> things that most national pundits almost never do:
>
> *1.* After the BCS, the slots are merely a guide. The No. 3 Big 12
> team doesn't really have to go to the Holiday Bowl, for example.
> It'll be a cold day in hell before you ever see Florida or Georgia
> in the Cotton Bowl ever again, as another example. The slots are
> really meaningless. The bowls try to create games they think people
> will attend in person and often, the bowls work in concert to make
> it happen. That's how NU headed to the Gator Bowl last year despite
> finishing behind Missouri.
>
> *2.*Teams with the best following get more preferential treatment.
> This includes Nebraska.

[snip]

> Our Big 12 bowl projections:
>
> BCS title: Texas vs. Florida
> Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. LSU
> Holiday: Nebraska vs. Oregon State
> Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Michigan State
> Sun Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Stanford
> Insight Bowl: Missouri vs. Minnesota
> Independence Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Kentucky
> Texas Bowl: Iowa State vs. Navy


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