[Husker] NU/KU point spread

[Nick Chevance]

On Fri, Nov 13, 2009 at 9:02 AM, Killmar, John <John.Killmar at stjude.org> wrote:
> As I was surprised that OU was only a 5 point favorite over the Huskers, I am also surprised to see that Nebraska is only a 3.5 point favorite over Kansas.  Here is what Kansas has done this season:
>
> Date
> Sept 5 vs. Northern Colorado W 49 - 3
> Sept 12 at UTEP W 34 - 7
> Sept 19 vs. Duke W 44 - 16
> Sept 26 vs. Southern Miss W 35 - 28
> Oct 10 vs. Iowa State W 41 - 36
> Oct 17 at Colorado L 30 - 34
> Oct 24 vs. Oklahoma L 13 - 35
> Oct 31 at Texas Tech L 21 - 42
> Nov 7 at Kansas State L 10 - 17
> Nov 14 vs. Nebraska   3:30 PM ET
> Nov 21 at Texas
> Nov 28 vs. Missouri
>
> John Killmar

Well, they have a redshirt Freshman guard, on his second start, heads
up on Suh.  Can you say T-R-A-I-N W-R-E-C-K??  And again, even if they
give the guy help with double teams, Crick is likely to cause them all
sorts of problems.  If Reesing thought he got knocked around last
year, I suspect its likely to be worse this year.  Our secondary is
playing much better this year, which means that Briscoe and Meier are
likely to be limited.  Finally, Sharp, a really good runner, isn't
likely to have much better success than DeMarco Murray.  Taken
together, its not likely that Kansas will be terribly successful on
offense.  I would hazard a guess that they could squeeze out a couple
of scores, but then are they likely to be more successful than OK?

I look at those scores and see that nobody had much difficulty scoring
on them, but Kansas did managed to outscore some of their opponents
(but only 13 against OK at home!).  At least 4 scores by Southern
Miss, 6 by Iowa State, 5 each by Colorado and Oklahoma, bunches by
TTech, etc.  Unsportsmanlike Conduct guys figure this will be the
worst defense the Huskers have played since we finished the Sun Belt
season.  If we had a halfway decent offense, like last year's, we'd
score at least 35 on them.

So, all things being equal, I'd say Nebraska 35, Kansas 14, and
scrunch that a bit because of Kansas home field advantage to Nebraska
28, Kansas 17, maybe.

But we don't have a halfway decent offense.  We're likely to play it
close, play ball control as much as possible, use field position to
our advantage, and use the defense to set up scoring opportunities.
Very much like last week.  Again, for all those out there with weak
tickers, you may not want to watch the fourth quarter.  I think
Nebraska wins, but it very will could be within that 3 point spread.

I wish I could see the offense open it up this week, but the current
style gives them the best chance to succeed.  And I really hope they
worked on the pitch play some this week!!

Nick
-- 
"I heard someone tried the monkeys-on-typewriters bit trying for the
plays of W. Shakespeare, but all they got was the collected works of
Francis Bacon."
Bill Hirst