[Husker] Changes
Steve Reichenbach
reich at inetnebr.com
Mon Nov 2 08:17:50 CST 2009
In response to this post asking a direct question as to whether NU
would win another game this season:
>>> I don't see another win this season. Am I just too pessimistic or
>>> does anyone else see a win against KU, KSU, OU or CU in Boulder?
I wrote a response answering that I do believe NU will win another
game this season and provided objective, quantitative information
in reference to that opinion:
>> Yes. As a point of reference, Sagarin ranks NU #43, Kansas #58, Kansas
>> State #68, and Colorado #96. According to Sagarin, OU is favored by
>> less than one point in Lincoln, which is pretty much a toss-up. There
>> are other teams playing less than perfect football.
Dave's response was:
> You're not seriously posting this. Sagarin ratings? You think OU
> should only be favored by a point? Fine. I'll take OU giving 1.
> You go look in your pockets and name any amount you want.
So, Dave, yes, I am serious, just as I posted, believe that NU will
win another game and I'll be happy to bet any amount you want. So,
go look in your pockets and name any amount you want.
As to Sagarin's ratings (which has OU #21, higher than many human
and best computer polls, and NU #43, lower than many human and best
computer polls), you may or may not believe in the ability of computers
to a use quantitative information to make predictions, but I know that
many people have made real money using the slight edge against the
betting line that such analyses provide. And, guessing the right side
of the betting line with any consistency is a difficult task. In the
consensus rankings at mratings.com, OU is #24 and NU is #38. Massey,
which is one of the best ratings has OU at #16 and NU at #40 with OU
favored by 4.2pts in Lincoln and figures Sauceda has OU at 3.2pts,
and Markov has OU at 5.5pts. The betting line on the NU-OU game opened
at about 6 points.
I think NU can win or lose each remaining game. The computers indicate
that their is too much negativity about NU this weekend. I'm hoping
that on Saturday the Huskers prove that negativity wrong.
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