[Husker] Why is Clemson favored?

Thu Jan 1 20:17:47 CST 2009

Thanks for the props. I hadn't mentioned to the list that I had stayed at a
Holiday Inn Express the night before posting.   

I sure am glad that our team scored more points than their team in this
defensive battle.  Whew!

Nebraska's Offense was well-balanced today (49% R & 51% P) with a 5.1
yds/rush gain.  Not bad against the speedy ACC defense!  I was worried when
Q came in but he managed 124 yds (6.9/ carry).  Discounting the long run in
the 2nd half when he made Fouts eat his words, he still gained 3.9
yds/carry.  Ultimately, Ganz' sub-par game was enough in the 2nf half.  What
a gutsy performance.  There's one kid from Illinois that we can be proud of.

The Blackshirts played a lot better than I expected.  T&L were shut down and
became increasing frustrated as the game went on.  Seeing Harper in passing
situations made me feel good.  He ended only 17/37 with 2 INTs---but was
sacked five times!  Sure glad to have the Pelini brothers running the show!
Players don't quit.   Suh was dominant.a great leader that has a tough
decision ahead of him.  Sure hopes that he comes back for his Senior year.

Special Teams/TO's/Penalties:  

We need more focus here.relying on a FG kicker to win most games is not a
failsafe method of dominance.    The special team's play an important part
of the game and we lost all three areas.  In losing all three areas, we were
prevented from a total annihilation of the Tigers.  Tigers gained field
position frequently with 178 return yards & 81 penalty yards.   I don't know
who the special team's coach is, but we need to improve in this area.  We
lost the TO margin, too --- where more hidden yards (91 yds) accumulated in
favor of the Tigers.  It really is amazing that the team was able to
overcome this adversity and still end up scoring more points.  

Sure hope that everyone has a pleasant, peaceful and prosperous new year. I
am looking forward to welcoming Schnellenberger (Florida Atlantic) to
Lincoln this fall.   

Cheers,

Steve G

  _____  

From: Lynette Tillner [mailto:ltillner at yahoo.com] 
Sent: Thursday, January 01, 2009 7:12 PM
To: 'Husker List'; Steve Gomez
Subject: RE: [Husker] Why is Clemson favored?

I didn't read this post until AFTER the game. You nailed it Steve. 26-21
very close game indeed. And the 2nd half NU was much better! 

Lynette (Tillner) Peavey
ltillner at yahoo.com

--- On Tue, 12/30/08, Steve Gomez <stevegomez6571 at gmail.com> wrote:

From: Steve Gomez <stevegomez6571 at gmail.com>
Subject: RE: [Husker] Why is Clemson favored?
To: "'Husker List'" <husker at tssi.com>
Date: Tuesday, December 30, 2008, 5:33 AM

Usually, I start my day with some coffee.  However, after perusing this
thread, it seems that the list is serving tall glasses of kool-aid.  I think
the game will be close...very close.  I am not trying to be antagonizing so
don't be calling me a son-of-a-beach.

Here is why Clemson is favored:

Huskers O
Tigers  D...   Yes, Ganz is usually very composed, but Watson should would
do well to put in a game plan that emphasizes running (65~70%) / ball
control. Let's hope that Lucky/Helu produce more than 4 yds per carry
against the Tiger's D (only allowed such against 'Bama, MD & FLA
St).  The
Offense is productive (12.7 yds/point) but not outstanding.  They face a
Defense that is stingy, forcing opponents to earn more than 17.5 yds per
point.

Huskers D
Tigers  O...   Houston...we have a problem!  IMHO, this part of the game
will ultimately decide whether or not more Cheery Kool-Aid is consumed than
its Orange counterpart.  The Tigers offense turns turf/grass at the rate of
13.3 yds per point.  The Blackshirts have improved from the abyss of last
season, but they are not a great unit.  They have given opponents points at
the rate of 12.4 yds/pt.  Since I have used this measurement, this is a
really low number.  

Special Teams...       Net Punting & KO Returns (i.e. field position) are
factored into the YDS/PT numbers.  Of course, if you have a great kick
returner than your team will have fewer yards to traverse before entering
the red zone...  YDS/game for net punting + PR + KO.  Here, a slight
marginal edge (5.7 v 5.5) goes to the Cherry Kool-Aid.  Clemson has a very
low PR average (less than 8 yds per PR).

Turnovers / Discipline... Moderate edge to the Tigers.  Points off TOs and
free yardage off penalties are show stoppers... Always has been the
'equalizer' in football.  Both teams have a negative TO... they believe
in
giving rather than receiving.  12 of the 25 takeaways that the Tigers earned
came in the last 4 games (10 via INT)!    The Huskers average more than 7
penalties per game.  Using the typical 8 yds per penalty average... that's
56 yds per game.  Tiger's average 5.5 penalties per game.   Both teams have
improved since September... Cherry 5.3 v Orange 4.7 penalties per game over
last 6 games

Miscellaneous...       All of Nebraska's 2nd half, come-from-behind W's
made for some good football.  I really enjoyed the season from that
perspective.  The truth is that the team never quit, but it would be more
dominant to have the game in-hand by the end of the 3rd quarter (or
earlier).  Pelini's ability to motivate the players is matched
stride-for-stride by Dabo Swinney.  Both teams will play to the final
whistle...may the best team win!

Huskers.....27
Tigers......24

Go Big Red!

Steve G
Loves Park, IL
(deep behind enemy lines in Big TelEveN country)

-----Original Message-----
From: husker-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:husker-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of
Duane Feldman
Sent: Monday, December 29, 2008 9:16 AM
To: jon johnston; gbrlist at yahoo.com
Cc: Husker List
Subject: [Husker] Why is Clemson favored?

True, but you can bet that Clemson fans are making exactly the opposite
argument:  "Nebraska has good offensive stats because no one in the Big
12
plays defense."

Someone else brought up the point that if Joe Ganz were playing in the ACC,
he would be AC QB by a landslide.  Joey is the #21 ranked QB by rating and
#12 by offensive stats.  The top QB in the ACC is #52 and if falls off from
there (I think Skinner from Wake Forest is their top QB).

Personally, the more I find out about Clemson, the better I feel about the
game.  Conversely, I don't understand how Clemson is a 2.5 pt favorite. 
When I bet against Vegas, it probably means either I know something they
don't, or they know something I don't.  Since I am looking at the
stats, it
is obvious I am missing something.

Can anyone answer why Clemson is favored?

Duane Feldman

________________________________
From: jon johnston <jon.johnston at gmail.com>
To: gbrlist at yahoo.com
Cc: Husker List <husker at tssi.com>
Sent: Sunday, December 28, 2008 9:03:49 PM
Subject: Re: [Husker] Clemson running game