[Husker] Holiday Bowl lines
Steve Reichenbach
reich at inetnebr.com
Mon Dec 21 13:54:14 CST 2009
It appears that Arizona is a one to 1.5 point favorite over NU.
By some accounts, the line has moved in Arizona's favor. The
over/under is 40, which is the lowest of any bowl game.
Most rankings have NU and Arizona very close. The consensus
ranking at mratings.com has Arizona #17 and NU #19.
Sagarin's predictors have NU a 4.31 point favorite (86.45-82.14).
Massey has 40.39-20.76=19.63 points for NU and 48.32-31.66=16.66
points for Arizona, so NU is a 2.97 point favorite and 36.29 total
points. Massey has the Sauceda system with 18.8 points for each
team with NU favored and the Markov system with NU winning 25.2
to 16.8. Payne has NU winning by .02 points (a toss-up). ARGH
has NU by 4. Coffey has Arizona rated #21 81.36 and NU rated
#22 81.27. Claassen has NU #19 127.28 and Arizona #20 126.86.
Laz Index has NU #15 121.42 and Arizona #18 118.06. Ashby has
Arizona winning by 2 with 46 points scored. Atomic has an NU
win 60% likely. The Prediction Tracker site has NU favored by
an average of 1.51 and a median of 2.19.
Looking at these computer ratings, it is difficult to see why the
betting line favors Arizona (i.e., why more people are betting on
Arizona when most computers favor NU).
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