[Husker] Ratings

[Skylar Dodds]

I think realistically we have 1 maybe 2 more losses on the schedule (worse
case is 3, but I don't see it).

I think we can beat KU, but it will be a tough game.  I give us a 60% chance
of winning that one.

I'd give us a 15% chance of beating OU (would have been 1% two weeks ago,
lol).  OU's still a darn good team and we're going to their house.

--
Skylar


-----Original Message-----
From: husker-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:husker-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of
Lynette Tillner
Sent: Monday, October 20, 2008 2:26 PM
To: husker at tssi.com; Steve Reichenbach
Subject: Re: [Husker] Ratings

I don't see Nebraska winning the North. I think Misery will be fed to the
Texas Lionhorns twice this year! That's the problem with this Big 12
Championship game - you often get the same match up twice. 

Hopefully we only have one more loss this year! Who knows, maybe we can
upset the Sooners (dreaming!) 

Lynette Tillner
ltillner at yahoo.com


--- On Mon, 10/20/08, Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com> wrote:

> From: Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com>
> Subject: [Husker] Ratings
> To: husker at tssi.com
> Date: Monday, October 20, 2008, 9:26 AM
> The consensus computer rankings at mratings.com have:
> #1 UT, #4 OU, #6 OSU, #10 TT, #14 MU, and #24 KU.
> Nebraska is #35
> #50 CU, #68 KSU, #74 Baylor, #93 TAMU, #99 ISU
> 
> Sagarin has:
> #1 UT, #4 OU, #6 OSU, #12 MU, #13 TT, and #24 KU.
> Nebraska is #31
> #53 CU, #73 KSU, #80 BU, #103 ISU, #110 TAMU
> with:
> NU over BU  by 16.12
> OU over NU  by 12.45
> NU over KU  by  2.54
> NU over KSU by  8.70
> NU over CU  by 15.52
> I think it is the case that Sagarin favors teams that can
> score points,
> which NU has been doing in most games.
> 
> If each games turns out as Sagarin predicts, NU would
> finish 8-4 and
> 5-3 in conference.
> 
> If NU is 5-3, could they win the North?
> 
> MU is 1-2 in conference, so for NU to win the North at 5-3,
>  MU must
> lose two more games or finish in a multi-way tie.  They
> have CU, @BU,
> KSU, @ISU, and KU.  That's a pretty favorable schedule,
> with the
> strongest opponents coming to Columbia.  Their closest
> predicted
> outcome is KU, with which they're currently favored by
> 6.45 points.
> So, it seems unlikely that MU will lose 2 more games.  If
> NU is to win
> the North, it seems like a 3-way tie is the best chance.
> 
> KU now is 2-1.  If they lose to NU and beat MU, that would
> be 3-2 and
> they would have to lose one (and only one) more game.  They
> host both
> TT and UT, so they'd have to go 1-1 against them and
> beat KSU at home.
> 
> So, if NU, MU, and KU finish 5-3 in the North, the first
> tie-breaker
> is records against each other and all teams would be 1-1. 
> The next
> tie breaker is within the division and all teams would be
> 5-1.  The next
> tie breakers are against the 4, 5, and 6 place teams in the
> division
> and all teams would be 1-0 against each.  The next tie
> breaker would be
> against all common conference opponents and there is no
> common conference
> opponent.  The next tie breaker is the BCS poll and it
> seems unlikely
> that NU at 8-4 would be rated ahead of MU at 9-3.  The next
> tiebreaker
> is overall winning percentage and UM did not lose a
> non-conference game,
> whereas NU and KU did.
> 
> So, it appears that unless NU wins out (including a win in
> Norman as a
> 12pt underdog) or MU loses 2 more games (which seems
> unlikely given their
> schedule), MU will win the North.
> 
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