[Husker] Ratings

[Steve Reichenbach]

The consensus computer rankings at mratings.com have:
#1 UT, #4 OU, #6 OSU, #10 TT, #14 MU, and #24 KU.
Nebraska is #35
#50 CU, #68 KSU, #74 Baylor, #93 TAMU, #99 ISU

Sagarin has:
#1 UT, #4 OU, #6 OSU, #12 MU, #13 TT, and #24 KU.
Nebraska is #31
#53 CU, #73 KSU, #80 BU, #103 ISU, #110 TAMU
with:
NU over BU  by 16.12
OU over NU  by 12.45
NU over KU  by  2.54
NU over KSU by  8.70
NU over CU  by 15.52
I think it is the case that Sagarin favors teams that can score points,
which NU has been doing in most games.

If each games turns out as Sagarin predicts, NU would finish 8-4 and
5-3 in conference.

If NU is 5-3, could they win the North?

MU is 1-2 in conference, so for NU to win the North at 5-3,  MU must
lose two more games or finish in a multi-way tie.  They have CU, @BU,
KSU, @ISU, and KU.  That's a pretty favorable schedule, with the
strongest opponents coming to Columbia.  Their closest predicted
outcome is KU, with which they're currently favored by 6.45 points.
So, it seems unlikely that MU will lose 2 more games.  If NU is to win
the North, it seems like a 3-way tie is the best chance.

KU now is 2-1.  If they lose to NU and beat MU, that would be 3-2 and
they would have to lose one (and only one) more game.  They host both
TT and UT, so they'd have to go 1-1 against them and beat KSU at home.

So, if NU, MU, and KU finish 5-3 in the North, the first tie-breaker
is records against each other and all teams would be 1-1.  The next
tie breaker is within the division and all teams would be 5-1.  The next
tie breakers are against the 4, 5, and 6 place teams in the division
and all teams would be 1-0 against each.  The next tie breaker would be
against all common conference opponents and there is no common conference
opponent.  The next tie breaker is the BCS poll and it seems unlikely
that NU at 8-4 would be rated ahead of MU at 9-3.  The next tiebreaker
is overall winning percentage and UM did not lose a non-conference game,
whereas NU and KU did.

So, it appears that unless NU wins out (including a win in Norman as a
12pt underdog) or MU loses 2 more games (which seems unlikely given their
schedule), MU will win the North.