[Husker] A breakdown of the NU vs MU debacle
Patrick Gaule
pgaule at cox.net
Mon Oct 6 17:59:56 CDT 2008
As much as I like Sagarin's system, it's only as useful as the data
being fed into it. And right now, I don't think there have been enough
games for his system to be very accurate.
Mike Jaixen wrote:
> That same predictor had Nebraska narrowly beating Missouri on Saturday night, unfortunately. (Mizzou was #30 last week; the Huskers were #33)
>
> Mike Jaixen
> http://huskermike.blogspot.com
> http://www.cornnation.com
>
>
> --- On Mon, 10/6/08, Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com> wrote:
>
>
>>From: Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com>
>>Subject: Re: [Husker] A breakdown of the NU vs MU debacle
>>To: husker at tssi.com
>>Date: Monday, October 6, 2008, 5:03 PM
>>It MAY BE that there is too much pessimism. NU is #40 in
>>Sagarin's
>>predictor and of the remaining opponents, only OU and TT
>>are ranked
>>better. The next toughest opponents (according to Sagarin)
>>are KU
>>and CU, which NU plays at home. The other road games are
>>against
>>teams ranked #62 and #65 by Sagarin, two of the three
>>weakest teams
>>on the remaining schedule.
>>
>>Here are the game-by-game predictors.
>>
>>@TT lose by 12
>>@IS win by 4
>> BU win by 9
>>@OU lose by 21
>> KU win by 3
>>@KS win by 3
>> CU win by 10
>>
>>So, right now, NU would be favored to win in 5 more games,
>>so it is
>>reasonable to think NU still may finish with 7 or 8 wins.
>>I hope
>>this team shows enough heart and desire to do that.
>>
>>HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.14 RATING W L
>>SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS |
>>PREDICTOR
>> 2 Oklahoma A = 92.87 5 0 66.97(
>>80) 0 0 | 1 0 | 90.13 6 | 95.06 3
>> 10 Texas Tech A = 85.29 5 0 62.04(
>>119) 0 0 | 0 0 | 86.46 12 | 85.85 10
>> 41 Nebraska A = 77.04 3 2 70.55(
>>36) 0 1 | 0 2 | 77.68 34 | 77.25 40
>> 44 Kansas A = 76.57 4 1 64.62(
>>99) 0 0 | 0 0 | 73.89 48 | 77.72 38
>> 50 Colorado A = 74.04 3 2 71.36(
>>27) 0 1 | 0 1 | 75.07 43 | 70.86 64
>> 65 Kansas State A = 70.20 3 2 62.44(
>>114) 0 1 | 0 1 | 62.89 104 | 71.39 62
>> 68 Baylor A = 69.44 2 3 69.04(
>>55) 0 1 | 0 2 | 66.21 88 | 71.03 63
>> 84 Iowa State A = 66.31 2 3 65.61(
>>93) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.24 108 | 69.83 65
>>
>>
>>>In the newest schedule strength rankings, Nebraska has
>>
>>the toughest
>>
>>>schedule in the country.
>>>
>>>You simply have to factor that in amongst the
>>
>>discussion of our
>>
>>>possible record. With a coaching changeover, and this
>>
>>schedule, we
>>
>>>can't really expect much from here on out.
>>>
>>>Even our "should win" games are in question,
>>
>>to me, until we see some
>>
>>>semblance of a disciplined game without "unforced
>>
>>errors", and the
>>
>>>emergence of a running game.
>>>
>>>Rod W.
>>>Sioux City, Ia.
>>>
>>>On Oct 6, 2008, at 1:20 PM, Mike Jaixen wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>>>From what I've seen, I question how you
>>
>>could predict a loss to
>>
>>>>>Colorado when you also are predicting a
>>
>>victory over Kansas?
>>
>>>>>Colorado has an impressive home win over West
>>
>>Virginia, but that's
>>
>>>>>it. They got shelled by Florida State and
>>
>>Texas (at home). They
>>
>>>>>nearly lost at home to 1-AA Eastern
>>
>>Washington.
>>
>>>>I rate them as follows:
>>>>Likely losses: @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma
>>>>Toss Ups: @ Iowa State, Kansas
>>>>Should Wins: Baylor, @ Kansas State, Colorado
>>>>
>>>>Win one of the toss up games and the three
>>
>>shoulds, you've got a 7-5
>>
>>>>season which, while disappointing, is an
>>
>>improvement over 2007.
>>
>>>>--- On Mon, 10/6/08, Skylar Dodds
>>
>><sklarbodds at cox.net> wrote:
>>
>>>>>"It's just tough (as I'm sure
>>
>>many can attest)
>>
>>>>>to see teams walk all over Nebraska AT HOME
>>
>>no less, no
>>
>>>>>matter what the circumstances. Heck even
>>
>>Baylor and Iowa
>>
>>>>>State seem to have a shot now."
>>>>>
>>>>>Scott, you may be right (although I'd
>>
>>still take us
>>
>>>>>straight up). I want to add to that comment
>>
>>though, IMO, I
>>
>>>>>don't think Baylor and ISU are the two
>>
>>weakest teams in
>>
>>>>>the conference.
>>>>>
>>>>>I think that award goes to KSU and aTm. I
>>
>>think the Big
>>
>>>>>XII season will bear that out.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Here's my breakdown going forward:
>>>>>
>>>>>10/11 @ Texas Tech - Ouch.
>>>>>
>>>>>10/18 @ Iowa State - Win, but very close.
>>>>>
>>>>>10/25 Baylor - Win, by 14-21.
>>>>>
>>>>>11/01 @ Oklahoma - Lose by 25. (ONLY because
>>
>>Stoops and
>>
>>>>>Pellini are very good friends)
>>>>>
>>>>>11/08 Kansas - Win in a nailbiter (It's
>>
>>in Lincoln and
>>
>>>>>KU's most impressive game was a loss to
>>
>>South Florida).
>>
>>>>>OK, that's probably drinking the cool-aid
>>
>>a little, but
>>
>>>>>I think we have a shot.
>>>>>
>>>>>11/15 @ Kansas St. - Win, see above. Most
>>
>>impressive game:
>>
>>>>>45-37 over Louisiana-Lafayette
>>>>>
>>>>>11/28 Colorado - Lose, by 7-10.
>>>>>
>>>>>Finish 7-5. I could see 6-6, but I really
>>
>>doubt 5-7.
>>
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