[Husker] A breakdown of the NU vs MU debacle

Mon Oct 6 17:17:57 CDT 2008

That same predictor had Nebraska narrowly beating Missouri on Saturday night, unfortunately.  (Mizzou was #30 last week; the Huskers were #33)

Mike Jaixen
http://huskermike.blogspot.com
http://www.cornnation.com

--- On Mon, 10/6/08, Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com> wrote:

> From: Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com>
> Subject: Re: [Husker] A breakdown of the NU vs MU debacle
> To: husker at tssi.com
> Date: Monday, October 6, 2008, 5:03 PM
> It MAY BE that there is too much pessimism.  NU is #40 in
> Sagarin's
> predictor and of the remaining opponents, only OU and TT
> are ranked
> better.  The next toughest opponents (according to Sagarin)
> are KU
> and CU, which NU plays at home.  The other road games are
> against
> teams ranked #62 and #65 by Sagarin, two of the three
> weakest teams
> on the remaining schedule.
> 
> Here are the game-by-game predictors.
> 
> @TT lose by 12
> @IS win by 4
>  BU win by 9
> @OU lose by 21
>  KU win by 3
> @KS win by 3
>  CU win by 10
> 
> So, right now, NU would be favored to win in 5 more games,
> so it is
> reasonable to think NU still may finish with 7 or 8 wins. 
> I hope
> this team shows enough heart and desire to do that.
> 
> HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.14           RATING    W   L 
> SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   | 
> PREDICTOR  
>    2  Oklahoma             A  =  92.87    5   0   66.97( 
> 80)    0   0  |    1   0  |   90.13    6 |   95.06    3
>   10  Texas Tech           A  =  85.29    5   0   62.04(
> 119)    0   0  |    0   0  |   86.46   12 |   85.85   10
>   41  Nebraska             A  =  77.04    3   2   70.55( 
> 36)    0   1  |    0   2  |   77.68   34 |   77.25   40
>   44  Kansas               A  =  76.57    4   1   64.62( 
> 99)    0   0  |    0   0  |   73.89   48 |   77.72   38
>   50  Colorado             A  =  74.04    3   2   71.36( 
> 27)    0   1  |    0   1  |   75.07   43 |   70.86   64
>   65  Kansas State         A  =  70.20    3   2   62.44(
> 114)    0   1  |    0   1  |   62.89  104 |   71.39   62
>   68  Baylor               A  =  69.44    2   3   69.04( 
> 55)    0   1  |    0   2  |   66.21   88 |   71.03   63
>   84  Iowa State           A  =  66.31    2   3   65.61( 
> 93)    0   0  |    0   0  |   61.24  108 |   69.83   65
> 
> > In the newest schedule strength rankings, Nebraska has
> the toughest  
> > schedule in the country.
> > 
> > You simply have to factor that in amongst the
> discussion of our  
> > possible record.  With a coaching changeover, and this
> schedule, we  
> > can't really expect much from here on out.
> > 
> > Even our "should win" games are in question,
> to me, until we see some  
> > semblance of a disciplined game without "unforced
> errors", and the  
> > emergence of a running game.
> > 
> > Rod W.
> > Sioux City, Ia.
> > 
> > On Oct 6, 2008, at 1:20 PM, Mike Jaixen wrote:
> > 
> > >> From what I've seen, I question how you
> could predict a loss to  
> > >> Colorado when you also are predicting a
> victory over Kansas?   
> > >> Colorado has an impressive home win over West
> Virginia, but that's  
> > >> it.  They got shelled by Florida State and
> Texas (at home).  They  
> > >> nearly lost at home to 1-AA Eastern
> Washington.
> > >
> > > I rate them as follows:
> > > Likely losses:  @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma
> > > Toss Ups:  @ Iowa State, Kansas
> > > Should Wins: Baylor, @ Kansas State, Colorado
> > >
> > > Win one of the toss up games and the three
> shoulds, you've got a 7-5  
> > > season which, while disappointing, is an
> improvement over 2007.
> > >
> > > --- On Mon, 10/6/08, Skylar Dodds
> <sklarbodds at cox.net> wrote:
> > >
> > >> "It's just tough (as I'm sure
> many can attest)
> > >> to see teams walk all over Nebraska AT HOME
> no less, no
> > >> matter what the circumstances. Heck even
> Baylor and Iowa
> > >> State seem to have a shot now."
> > >>
> > >> Scott, you may be right (although I'd
> still take us
> > >> straight up).  I want to add to that comment
> though, IMO, I
> > >> don't think Baylor and ISU are the two
> weakest teams in
> > >> the conference.
> > >>
> > >> I think that award goes to KSU and aTm.  I
> think the Big
> > >> XII season will bear that out.
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Here's my breakdown going forward:
> > >>
> > >> 10/11 @ Texas Tech - Ouch.
> > >>
> > >> 10/18 @ Iowa State - Win, but very close.
> > >>
> > >> 10/25 Baylor - Win, by 14-21.
> > >>
> > >> 11/01 @ Oklahoma - Lose by 25.  (ONLY because
> Stoops and
> > >> Pellini are very good friends)
> > >>
> > >> 11/08 Kansas - Win in a nailbiter (It's
> in Lincoln and
> > >> KU's most impressive game was a loss to
> South Florida).
> > >> OK, that's probably drinking the cool-aid
> a little, but
> > >> I think we have a shot.
> > >>
> > >> 11/15 @ Kansas St. - Win, see above.  Most
> impressive game:
> > >> 45-37 over Louisiana-Lafayette
> > >>
> > >> 11/28 Colorado - Lose, by 7-10.
> > >>
> > >> Finish 7-5.  I could see 6-6, but I really
> doubt 5-7.
> 
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