[Husker] A breakdown of the NU vs MU debacle

Mon Oct 6 17:11:39 CDT 2008

That is encouraging...I hope that it turns out to be correct.   Time to dig 
out the Scarlet colored glasses. (chuckle)

Tommy Thompson
"GO BIG RED"
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Steve Reichenbach" <reich at inetnebr.com>
To: <husker at tssi.com>
Sent: Monday, October 06, 2008 5:03 PM
Subject: Re: [Husker] A breakdown of the NU vs MU debacle

> It MAY BE that there is too much pessimism.  NU is #40 in Sagarin's
> predictor and of the remaining opponents, only OU and TT are ranked
> better.  The next toughest opponents (according to Sagarin) are KU
> and CU, which NU plays at home.  The other road games are against
> teams ranked #62 and #65 by Sagarin, two of the three weakest teams
> on the remaining schedule.
>
> Here are the game-by-game predictors.
>
> @TT lose by 12
> @IS win by 4
> BU win by 9
> @OU lose by 21
> KU win by 3
> @KS win by 3
> CU win by 10
>
> So, right now, NU would be favored to win in 5 more games, so it is
> reasonable to think NU still may finish with 7 or 8 wins.  I hope
> this team shows enough heart and desire to do that.
>
> HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.14           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | 
> VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR
>   2  Oklahoma             A  =  92.87    5   0   66.97(  80)    0   0  | 
> 1   0  |   90.13    6 |   95.06    3
>  10  Texas Tech           A  =  85.29    5   0   62.04( 119)    0   0  | 
> 0   0  |   86.46   12 |   85.85   10
>  41  Nebraska             A  =  77.04    3   2   70.55(  36)    0   1  | 
> 0   2  |   77.68   34 |   77.25   40
>  44  Kansas               A  =  76.57    4   1   64.62(  99)    0   0  | 
> 0   0  |   73.89   48 |   77.72   38
>  50  Colorado             A  =  74.04    3   2   71.36(  27)    0   1  | 
> 0   1  |   75.07   43 |   70.86   64
>  65  Kansas State         A  =  70.20    3   2   62.44( 114)    0   1  | 
> 0   1  |   62.89  104 |   71.39   62
>  68  Baylor               A  =  69.44    2   3   69.04(  55)    0   1  | 
> 0   2  |   66.21   88 |   71.03   63
>  84  Iowa State           A  =  66.31    2   3   65.61(  93)    0   0  | 
> 0   0  |   61.24  108 |   69.83   65
>
>> In the newest schedule strength rankings, Nebraska has the toughest
>> schedule in the country.
>>
>> You simply have to factor that in amongst the discussion of our
>> possible record.  With a coaching changeover, and this schedule, we
>> can't really expect much from here on out.
>>
>> Even our "should win" games are in question, to me, until we see some
>> semblance of a disciplined game without "unforced errors", and the
>> emergence of a running game.
>>
>> Rod W.
>> Sioux City, Ia.
>>
>> On Oct 6, 2008, at 1:20 PM, Mike Jaixen wrote:
>>
>> >> From what I've seen, I question how you could predict a loss to
>> >> Colorado when you also are predicting a victory over Kansas?
>> >> Colorado has an impressive home win over West Virginia, but that's
>> >> it.  They got shelled by Florida State and Texas (at home).  They
>> >> nearly lost at home to 1-AA Eastern Washington.
>> >
>> > I rate them as follows:
>> > Likely losses:  @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma
>> > Toss Ups:  @ Iowa State, Kansas
>> > Should Wins: Baylor, @ Kansas State, Colorado
>> >
>> > Win one of the toss up games and the three shoulds, you've got a 7-5
>> > season which, while disappointing, is an improvement over 2007.
>> >
>> > --- On Mon, 10/6/08, Skylar Dodds <sklarbodds at cox.net> wrote:
>> >
>> >> "It's just tough (as I'm sure many can attest)
>> >> to see teams walk all over Nebraska AT HOME no less, no
>> >> matter what the circumstances. Heck even Baylor and Iowa
>> >> State seem to have a shot now."
>> >>
>> >> Scott, you may be right (although I'd still take us
>> >> straight up).  I want to add to that comment though, IMO, I
>> >> don't think Baylor and ISU are the two weakest teams in
>> >> the conference.
>> >>
>> >> I think that award goes to KSU and aTm.  I think the Big
>> >> XII season will bear that out.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Here's my breakdown going forward:
>> >>
>> >> 10/11 @ Texas Tech - Ouch.
>> >>
>> >> 10/18 @ Iowa State - Win, but very close.
>> >>
>> >> 10/25 Baylor - Win, by 14-21.
>> >>
>> >> 11/01 @ Oklahoma - Lose by 25.  (ONLY because Stoops and
>> >> Pellini are very good friends)
>> >>
>> >> 11/08 Kansas - Win in a nailbiter (It's in Lincoln and
>> >> KU's most impressive game was a loss to South Florida).
>> >> OK, that's probably drinking the cool-aid a little, but
>> >> I think we have a shot.
>> >>
>> >> 11/15 @ Kansas St. - Win, see above.  Most impressive game:
>> >> 45-37 over Louisiana-Lafayette
>> >>
>> >> 11/28 Colorado - Lose, by 7-10.
>> >>
>> >> Finish 7-5.  I could see 6-6, but I really doubt 5-7.
>
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