[Husker] A breakdown of the NU vs MU debacle

[Steve Reichenbach]

It MAY BE that there is too much pessimism.  NU is #40 in Sagarin's
predictor and of the remaining opponents, only OU and TT are ranked
better.  The next toughest opponents (according to Sagarin) are KU
and CU, which NU plays at home.  The other road games are against
teams ranked #62 and #65 by Sagarin, two of the three weakest teams
on the remaining schedule.

Here are the game-by-game predictors.

@TT lose by 12
@IS win by 4
 BU win by 9
@OU lose by 21
 KU win by 3
@KS win by 3
 CU win by 10

So, right now, NU would be favored to win in 5 more games, so it is
reasonable to think NU still may finish with 7 or 8 wins.  I hope
this team shows enough heart and desire to do that.

HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.14           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR  
   2  Oklahoma             A  =  92.87    5   0   66.97(  80)    0   0  |    1   0  |   90.13    6 |   95.06    3
  10  Texas Tech           A  =  85.29    5   0   62.04( 119)    0   0  |    0   0  |   86.46   12 |   85.85   10
  41  Nebraska             A  =  77.04    3   2   70.55(  36)    0   1  |    0   2  |   77.68   34 |   77.25   40
  44  Kansas               A  =  76.57    4   1   64.62(  99)    0   0  |    0   0  |   73.89   48 |   77.72   38
  50  Colorado             A  =  74.04    3   2   71.36(  27)    0   1  |    0   1  |   75.07   43 |   70.86   64
  65  Kansas State         A  =  70.20    3   2   62.44( 114)    0   1  |    0   1  |   62.89  104 |   71.39   62
  68  Baylor               A  =  69.44    2   3   69.04(  55)    0   1  |    0   2  |   66.21   88 |   71.03   63
  84  Iowa State           A  =  66.31    2   3   65.61(  93)    0   0  |    0   0  |   61.24  108 |   69.83   65

> In the newest schedule strength rankings, Nebraska has the toughest  
> schedule in the country.
> 
> You simply have to factor that in amongst the discussion of our  
> possible record.  With a coaching changeover, and this schedule, we  
> can't really expect much from here on out.
> 
> Even our "should win" games are in question, to me, until we see some  
> semblance of a disciplined game without "unforced errors", and the  
> emergence of a running game.
> 
> Rod W.
> Sioux City, Ia.
> 
> On Oct 6, 2008, at 1:20 PM, Mike Jaixen wrote:
> 
> >> From what I've seen, I question how you could predict a loss to  
> >> Colorado when you also are predicting a victory over Kansas?   
> >> Colorado has an impressive home win over West Virginia, but that's  
> >> it.  They got shelled by Florida State and Texas (at home).  They  
> >> nearly lost at home to 1-AA Eastern Washington.
> >
> > I rate them as follows:
> > Likely losses:  @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma
> > Toss Ups:  @ Iowa State, Kansas
> > Should Wins: Baylor, @ Kansas State, Colorado
> >
> > Win one of the toss up games and the three shoulds, you've got a 7-5  
> > season which, while disappointing, is an improvement over 2007.
> >
> > --- On Mon, 10/6/08, Skylar Dodds <sklarbodds at cox.net> wrote:
> >
> >> "It's just tough (as I'm sure many can attest)
> >> to see teams walk all over Nebraska AT HOME no less, no
> >> matter what the circumstances. Heck even Baylor and Iowa
> >> State seem to have a shot now."
> >>
> >> Scott, you may be right (although I'd still take us
> >> straight up).  I want to add to that comment though, IMO, I
> >> don't think Baylor and ISU are the two weakest teams in
> >> the conference.
> >>
> >> I think that award goes to KSU and aTm.  I think the Big
> >> XII season will bear that out.
> >>
> >>
> >> Here's my breakdown going forward:
> >>
> >> 10/11 @ Texas Tech - Ouch.
> >>
> >> 10/18 @ Iowa State - Win, but very close.
> >>
> >> 10/25 Baylor - Win, by 14-21.
> >>
> >> 11/01 @ Oklahoma - Lose by 25.  (ONLY because Stoops and
> >> Pellini are very good friends)
> >>
> >> 11/08 Kansas - Win in a nailbiter (It's in Lincoln and
> >> KU's most impressive game was a loss to South Florida).
> >> OK, that's probably drinking the cool-aid a little, but
> >> I think we have a shot.
> >>
> >> 11/15 @ Kansas St. - Win, see above.  Most impressive game:
> >> 45-37 over Louisiana-Lafayette
> >>
> >> 11/28 Colorado - Lose, by 7-10.
> >>
> >> Finish 7-5.  I could see 6-6, but I really doubt 5-7.