[Husker] Oklahoma State

[David Strong]

Great post....really makes the game more interesting to know this beforehand.

Dave



> Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2007 12:19:36 -0500
> From: reich at inetnebr.com
> To: gbrlist at hotmail.com; husker at tssi.com
> Subject: Re: [Husker] Oklahoma State
> 
> The betting line favors NU by 4.  The homefield advantage is about
> 3 points, so according to the betting line NU is the better team
> (by a point) and is at home.
> 
> Sagarin's predictor has NU at #44 with a 75.35 rating and OSU at #43
> at a 75.51 rating, nearly dead even but with a fraction edge to OSU.
> However, with a 2.93 homefield advantage, Sagarin's predictor sets
> the line at NU favored by 2.77, a little closer than the betting line.
> Sagarin has NU's schedule rated 73.22 (#22) and OSU's schedule rated
> 68.62 (#69), which might be relevant to the statistics below.
> 
> The best of the consensus ratings at mratings.com have NU ranked
> 10-25 places ahead of OSU.  NU's average rank is 36 and OSU's is 53.
> 
> When NU has the ball:
> NU rushing offense  146ypg (#66) versus OSU rushing defense 109ypg (#26)
> NU passing offense  293ypg (#20) versus OSU passing defense 322ypg (#116)
> NU total offense    439ypg (#29) versus OSU passing defense 430ypg (#92)
> NU scoring offense   31ppg (#35) versus OSU scoring defense  26ppg (#61)
> NU 3rd down offense  44%   (#32) versus OSU 3rd down defense 35%   (#44)
> NU looks as if it should be able to move the ball passing and to score,
> but the statistics don't look good for NU running the ball.
> 
> When OSU has the ball:
> OSU rushing offense 235ypg (#10) versus NU rushing defense  191ypg (#97)
> OSU passing offense 239ypg (#51) versus NU passing defense  251ypg (#87)
> OSU total offense   473ypg (#14) versus NU passing defense  442ypg (#96)
> OSU scoring offense  32ypg (#31) versus NU scoring defense   29ppg (#75)
> OSU 3rd down offense 44%   (#36) versus NU 3rd down defense  46%   (#104)
> OSU looks as if it should be able to move the ball rushing (and perhaps
> passing) and to score.
> 
> Both defenses are low ranked, except OSU against the rush.  NU needs to
> do better at defense on 3rd down conversions.  Looking at these stats,
> you might give the edge to OSU, but NU has played a tougher schedule
> and is at home.
> 
> On special teams:
> NU has the edge on avg net punting 38yds (#23) to 34yds (#81).
> OSU has the edge on avg punt returns 13yds (#32) to 6ypds (#94), but
> NU has the edge on avg punt return defense 6yds (#26) to 20ypds (#116).
> (This could be a critical aspect.  Will NU's good punt defense shut
> down OSU's good punt returns?  Despite its anemic performance on punt
> returns, can NU get returns against a shaky OSU punt defense?)
> NU has a slight edge on avg kickoff returns 22ypds (#52) to 20yds (#80)
> and a tiny edge on kickoff return defense.
> (Despite moving the kickoff back, it appears that there is still more
> opportunity on punt returns, where NU has been good on defense but not
> so good on offense.)
> 
> NU has a -.5 turnover margin (#80), but better thans OSU's -1 (#101).
> (Winning the turnover margin in a close game could be critical.)
> 
> Looking at these factors, it could come down to a punt return or a
> turnover.  Doesn't that sound like what the talking heads will say
> (if they even talk about this game).
> 
> NU has been better at home and OSU has struggled on the road.  That
> difference could be worth more than the typical 3pts.   I think the
> fans will show up and be loud to open the game.  I hope the team gives
> them reason to keep it up.
> 
> I'll guess NU 31-27.
> 
> Unless NU wins this game, looking further ahead is dicouraging.  On
> NU's remaining schedule, OSU is the lowest rated team (by a pretty good
> margin) and NU is barely favored at home.  If they don't turn it around
> from last week, it could be a very disappointing season.  A loss this
> week likely would make NU an underdog in every remaining game.  Who
> would have guessed we'd think 4-8 would look like a possibility midway
> through the season?
> 
> 
> > 
> > Don't know anything about them personally but here is some info:
> > 
> >  - ranked 14th in Total Offense
> >     52st passing
> >     10th rushing
> > - ranked 92nd in Total Defense
> >     26th rushing defense
> >     116th passing defense
> > 
> > They are 3-3, winning all their home games against Florida Atlantic
> > 42-6, Texas Tech 49-45, and Sam Houston State 39-3. Lost all their road
> > games against Georgia 35-14, Troy 41-23, and Texas A&M 24-23.  They are
> > 1-11 in road games under Mike Gundy.  They have two good RBs in senior
> > RB Dantrell Savage (5.8 ypc) and Kendall Hunter (7.6 ypc).  Best
> > receiver appears to be Adarius Bowman.
> 

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