[Husker] Oklahoma State

[Steve Reichenbach]

The betting line favors NU by 4.  The homefield advantage is about
3 points, so according to the betting line NU is the better team
(by a point) and is at home.

Sagarin's predictor has NU at #44 with a 75.35 rating and OSU at #43
at a 75.51 rating, nearly dead even but with a fraction edge to OSU.
However, with a 2.93 homefield advantage, Sagarin's predictor sets
the line at NU favored by 2.77, a little closer than the betting line.
Sagarin has NU's schedule rated 73.22 (#22) and OSU's schedule rated
68.62 (#69), which might be relevant to the statistics below.

The best of the consensus ratings at mratings.com have NU ranked
10-25 places ahead of OSU.  NU's average rank is 36 and OSU's is 53.

When NU has the ball:
NU rushing offense  146ypg (#66) versus OSU rushing defense 109ypg (#26)
NU passing offense  293ypg (#20) versus OSU passing defense 322ypg (#116)
NU total offense    439ypg (#29) versus OSU passing defense 430ypg (#92)
NU scoring offense   31ppg (#35) versus OSU scoring defense  26ppg (#61)
NU 3rd down offense  44%   (#32) versus OSU 3rd down defense 35%   (#44)
NU looks as if it should be able to move the ball passing and to score,
but the statistics don't look good for NU running the ball.

When OSU has the ball:
OSU rushing offense 235ypg (#10) versus NU rushing defense  191ypg (#97)
OSU passing offense 239ypg (#51) versus NU passing defense  251ypg (#87)
OSU total offense   473ypg (#14) versus NU passing defense  442ypg (#96)
OSU scoring offense  32ypg (#31) versus NU scoring defense   29ppg (#75)
OSU 3rd down offense 44%   (#36) versus NU 3rd down defense  46%   (#104)
OSU looks as if it should be able to move the ball rushing (and perhaps
passing) and to score.

Both defenses are low ranked, except OSU against the rush.  NU needs to
do better at defense on 3rd down conversions.  Looking at these stats,
you might give the edge to OSU, but NU has played a tougher schedule
and is at home.

On special teams:
NU has the edge on avg net punting 38yds (#23) to 34yds (#81).
OSU has the edge on avg punt returns 13yds (#32) to 6ypds (#94), but
NU has the edge on avg punt return defense 6yds (#26) to 20ypds (#116).
(This could be a critical aspect.  Will NU's good punt defense shut
down OSU's good punt returns?  Despite its anemic performance on punt
returns, can NU get returns against a shaky OSU punt defense?)
NU has a slight edge on avg kickoff returns 22ypds (#52) to 20yds (#80)
and a tiny edge on kickoff return defense.
(Despite moving the kickoff back, it appears that there is still more
opportunity on punt returns, where NU has been good on defense but not
so good on offense.)

NU has a -.5 turnover margin (#80), but better thans OSU's -1 (#101).
(Winning the turnover margin in a close game could be critical.)

Looking at these factors, it could come down to a punt return or a
turnover.  Doesn't that sound like what the talking heads will say
(if they even talk about this game).

NU has been better at home and OSU has struggled on the road.  That
difference could be worth more than the typical 3pts.   I think the
fans will show up and be loud to open the game.  I hope the team gives
them reason to keep it up.

I'll guess NU 31-27.

Unless NU wins this game, looking further ahead is dicouraging.  On
NU's remaining schedule, OSU is the lowest rated team (by a pretty good
margin) and NU is barely favored at home.  If they don't turn it around
from last week, it could be a very disappointing season.  A loss this
week likely would make NU an underdog in every remaining game.  Who
would have guessed we'd think 4-8 would look like a possibility midway
through the season?


> 
> Don't know anything about them personally but here is some info:
> 
>  - ranked 14th in Total Offense
>     52st passing
>     10th rushing
> - ranked 92nd in Total Defense
>     26th rushing defense
>     116th passing defense
> 
> They are 3-3, winning all their home games against Florida Atlantic
> 42-6, Texas Tech 49-45, and Sam Houston State 39-3. Lost all their road
> games against Georgia 35-14, Troy 41-23, and Texas A&M 24-23.  They are
> 1-11 in road games under Mike Gundy.  They have two good RBs in senior
> RB Dantrell Savage (5.8 ypc) and Kendall Hunter (7.6 ypc).  Best
> receiver appears to be Adarius Bowman.