[Husker] Where are you riding on the bandwagon?

Sat Aug 25 17:50:12 CDT 2007

Bob, you're wrong.  If NU goes undefeated, which is a long shot, it
would be very, very surprising if they were not in the BCS Championship
game.  A careful analysis shows that NU would have better strength of
schedule and better quality wins than any other contender except an
undefeated SEC champion.  I admit it is possible that an undefeated Big
10 champion could nudge out NU, but the Big 10 contenders play no
ranked team out of conference and don't have a championship game.  A
slimmer possibility is that Virginia Tech, now ranked #9, but which
plays #2 LSU could nudge out NU, but LSU is their only opponent ranked
ahead of NU and they play only one other ranked team.  I think a
detailed analysis leads to the conclusion that only the very unlikely
combination of an undefeated SEC champion and an undefeated Big 10
champion could realistically keep an undefeated NU out of the BCS
Championship game and even if that unlikely circumstance comes to pass,
I think NU would get the nod over the Big 10 Champion for playing a
quality opponent outside the conference and winning its conference
championship game.

It is no longer the case (if it ever was) that teams can't jump
other teams that started ahead of them (but which don't play ranked
teams).  And, the BCS bid is based not just on polls, but also by
computer rankings, which clearly do factor in quality of schedule.

The following teams would be beaten by Nebraska or otherwise faltered:
#1 USC, #4 Texas, #25 Texas A&M, #8 Oklahoma
Also, Missouri and Wake Forest are just outside the top 25.

In the Big10:
#5 Michigan | #7 Wisconsin | #11 Ohio St | #17 Penn St
If the Big10 champion is undefeated, they might play in the BCS
Championship game, but for ranked opponents:
   Michigan plays only #7 Wisconsin, #11 Ohio St, #17 Penn St
   Wisconsin plays only #5 Michigan, #11 Ohio St, #17 Penn St
   Ohio St plays only #5 Michigan, #7 Wisconsin, #17 Penn St
   Penn St plays only #5 Michigan, #7 Wisconsin, #11 Ohio St
So, the Big 10 Champion may not have a single victory over a ranked
opponent outside the conference.  In fact, the entire Big 10 may not
have a single victory over a ranked opponent.  If NU has wins over #1
USC, #4 Texas, #25 Texas A&M, and the extra win in the Big 12
Championship game, which the Big 10 team won't, it will be a close
call.  NU likely would have better strength of schedule, but it
probably would depend on margin of victory and success of opponents.

In the BigEast:
#3 West Virginia | #10 Louisville | #16 Rutgers
For ranked opponents:
  West Virginia plays only #10 Louisville, #16 Rutgers
  Louisville plays only #3 West Virginia, #16 Rutgers
  Rutgers plays only #3 West Virginia, #10 Louisville
So, there are no ranked out-of-conference opponents and no conference
championship game.  If undefeated, NU almost certainly would get the
bid over any of these teams.

In the ACC:
#9 Virginia Tech | #19 Florida St (below NU in USA Today)
Virginia Tech plays #2 LSU and #19 Florida St.  They also play a
conference championship game.  If Virginia Tech beats LSU on the
road, it could be a close at the end of the year, but NU would have
a better strength of schedule and at least two wins, probably three
wins, over top 10 caliber teams, compared to one for Virginia Tech.

In the Pac10:
#1 USC | #12 California | #14 UCLA
For ranked opponents:
  Cal plays #1 USC, #14 UCLA
  UCLA plays #1 USC, #12 California
Neither team plays a ranked out-of-conference opponent, plays only
one top 10 caliber team, and won't have a conference championship.
Unless NU squeeks by USC and USC is blown out by the Pac 10 champion,
an undefeated NU would get the nod.

QED Undefeated NU is in the BCS Championship game.

> >>   I seriously doubt if this team goes undefeated they will win the 
> >> NC.  If they go undefeated I doubt they will be in the top five 
> >> barring some sort of collapse by 4-6 other teams 
> >
> > Really?  Even Boise State made it to the top 5 with an undefeated 
> > season and they didn't have teams like Texas and USC on their 
> > schedule.  I can't imagine a realistic scenario where an undefeated 
> > season for NU would not result in a top 5 finish.
> >
>      Remember the rest of what I said.  They possibly could get that 
> high but they are going to need help.  They won't get there just because 
> they are undefeated.  NU is pre-season 18-20 depending on the poll.  NU 
> plays two teams in the top 20 this year.  That being Texas and USC.  
> Even if NU would go undefeated there are enough teams ahead of them that 
> if they would have stellar seasons would make it difficult for NU to 
> move that high.  Depending on certain circumstances but assuming NU is 
> 20th and USC is Number one when they play, which is likely it will be 
> something around there, NU would have to dominate USC to move into the 
> top 10.  If the Huskers win a close one it won't move them into the top 
> 10 I wouldn't think.  I don't think I have ever seen anyone move up more 
> than eight places no matter who they beat.
> 
> 
> Bob Beach
> 
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