[Husker] Early line on NU-MU

[Derek Ryter]

NU by 6-6.5 is pretty far out in left field considering they're a mediocre
team with a mediocre coach, and will probably lose the rest of their games.

I also thought of the parallels with last year's bounce back from KU.  I
wonder if Callahan needs to look at his practicing scheme.  Even with better
execution and grasp of the WCO they look haggard at the same point in the
season.  I'm also not too surprised with the result in Stillwater.  OSU's
strength (big WRs and mobile QB) is the Blackshirts' weakness and as soon as
the blitz and Carricker stopped getting pressure they were doomed.  Support
from the safety also appeared lacking.

Being back home and against MU that was battered at home last week should
give them an advantage.


-----Original Message-----
From: husker-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:husker-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of
Steve Reichenbach
Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 10:40 AM
To: husker at tssi.com
Subject: [Husker] Early line on NU-MU

The early line has NU by 6 to 6.5.

The computers have it closer, e.g., Sagarin has NU by 2.99 and Maas
has Missouri by 0.2

The only common opponent is KSU, which Missouri beat 41-21 at home
and which NU beat 21-3 on the road.

Both seem to have played comparable schedules.  Sagarin has NU's
schedule #79 and Missouri's #83.  NU has played (and lost to)
tougher teams, going 0-2 against the top ten whereas Missouri is
0-1 against the top 30.

NU appears to have the edge on offense.  Nebraska is #8 in total
offense (437ypg) and Missouri is #19 in total offense (413ypg).
Nebraska is #13 in scoring offense (34.2ppg) and Missouri is #21 in
scoring offense (30.56ypg).  NU's attack is a little more balanced, at
#16 in rushing offense (189ypg) and #23 in passing offense (248ypg)
compared to Missouri which is #42 in rushing offense (155ypg) and #17
in passing offense (258ypg).

Missouri has a bigger edge on defense.  Missouri is #26 in total
defense (291ypg) and Nebraska is #68 in total defense (340ypg).
Missouri is #20 in scoring defense (15.9ppg) and NU is #30 in scoring
defense (17.4ppg).  NU's rushing defense is #44 (120ypg) and Missouri's
is #49 (123ypg).  NU's passing defense is #83 (219ypg) and Missouri's
is #27 (168ypg)

The worst statistical mismatch is Missouri #17 in passing offense
(it's best statistical category) and NU #83 in passing defense
(it's worst statistical category).  However, maybe it's not as bad
as that:  Missouri is #33 in passing efficiency and NU is #41 in
passing efficiency defense.

Missouri is #12 in sacks (3.22pg) and NU is #61 (only 2.00pg).  NU
needs some sacks to put Missouri in third and long situations because
Missouri has been good at converting third downs and has thrown 9
interceptions (#67, versus only 3 for NU, #4).  NU has gained 19
turnovers and lost 13.  Missouri has gained 21 turnovers and lost 20.
That is a significant factor which favors NU.  Missouri is converting
more than half of third down plays (#8, 51.5%).  NU is #19 at 45.5%.
NU has done a decent but not great job of third-down defense (#36,
33.6%).  Missouri is #47 in third-down defense at 35.5%.  NU stopping
Missouri on third down could be a key to the game.

On special teams, Missouri appears to have some trouble on punt
defense #99 in net average at 31.75y, but NU is only #52 in punt
returns.

I think the keys for NU are to have a plus in turnovers, which it
has done reasonably well and should be able to do against Missouri
(NU #20 and Missouri #56); rush the ball and convert its offense
to scoring, which it has done reasonably well but will have more
of a challenge with Missouri (#16 for NU's rushing offense against
#49 for Missouri's rushing defense and #13 for NU's scoring offense
against #17 for Missouri's scoring defense); and stop Missouri from
converting on third down, which NU has not done so well and faces
a challenge with Missouri (NU #36 third-down defense and Missouri
#8 third-down offense and NU #83 passing defense and Missouri #17
passing offense).  I think the biggest question mark is whether
NU's defense is up to the test.  Can they come up with sacks,
third-down stops, and turnovers?

I don't think Pinkel has proven to be a great coach, although
Missouri seems to have bounced back from its troubles last year
when Pinkel seemed to be on the spot.  I hope that Callahan and
Norvell and especially Cosgrove and the defensive coaches have
the team prepared and the game plan to put NU in the driver's seat
for the Big 12 North title.  Hopefully, the rest of this season
will be more like the last year's recovery to beat KSU, Colorado,
and Michigan (after consecutive losses to Missouri, OU, and Kansas)
than the swoon in Callahan's first-year finish of losses to ISU,
OU, and Colorado.

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