[personal] RE: [Husker] UT-NU Observations from the Press Box

Mon Oct 23 18:45:46 CDT 2006

I'd bet my Cadillac that there have been more sucessful hail mary type passes (or interferences that put the ball a heckuva lot closer) than there have been 58 yard field goals, regardless of the level.

Scott in NY

Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com> wrote: The stats you post, 42% from 50+, sound pretty good.  How many QBs
complete Hail Mary's with "any sort of consistency"?  NU had two
shots at the Hail Mary on Saturday and went 0-2.  Yes, it was a very
long FG, even with the 30mph tail-wind, but the odds of success with
the Hail Mary might be even less.  No one is saying a FG attempt
would have been made "consistently" or "regularly" (your words), so
in arguing against that, it's with your own straw man.

This is my last post on this topic.  Whether the odds were better
for the Hail Mary (which failed twice) or not, is open to speculation
--- which is what I did.  However, with a 30mph tailwind, a FG of that
length is possible (albeit a literal "long shot") for many kickers,
even some HS kickers.  That, is a FACT, re: Chris McClanthan's 59yd
FG, 1999, Millard South vs Lincoln East:
http://www.nsaahome.org/textfile/fbl/fballrec.html

> Hello Husker Fans,
> 
> Very few kickers can hit from 58 with any sort of consistency. Seeing
> as how 28% of all 50+ yard field goals are made from 4 kickers (see
> below), it seems obvious that 50+ yard field goal kickers are not the
> norm. Let's be frank here, we're not just talking about 50, we're
> talking about 58 which is a lot closer to 60, a near impossible range
> for ANY kicker. In fact, only 5 kickers in the HISTORY of the NFL have
> kicked 59 yards or longer (Tom Dempsey, Jason Elam, Steve Cox, Morten
> Anderson, and recently Matt Bryant). But sure, most high school kids
> can do it.
> 
> I would even say that very few kickers can hit from 45+ with
> consistency. Even out of our more recent kickers, I would think Josh
> Brown (career high of 58 btw and 9/15 from 50+ in the NFL) would be
> one of the few that can do it regularly.
> 
> NCAA Stats on 50+ yard kicks:
> All Div I schools: 36 of 86 or 41.9% from 50+, 0 of 3 from 60+ (CU 0-2
> and New Mex 0-1)
> 
> Attempts: 55 schools have attempted 50+ kicks, Only 4 schools have
> attempted more than 2 (WF 4-6, OSU 2-4, KSU 2-3, Colorado 2-4).  Of
> those 55, 27 have never made one (49.1%)
> 
> If a bunch of HS kids can kick 50+ regularly, they sure seem to forget
> when they get to college and the NFL.
> 
> -- 
> Go Skers,
>  Skylar                            mailto:Sklarbodds at cox.net
> 
> JV> Steve,
> 
> JV> I could have sworn from my seat that it was just inside the 45, which
> JV> would be a 62-yard attempt but I could be wrong. Either way it is a kick
> JV> that is way outside of our guy's range, even with the wind - which while
> JV> at his back was also swirling pretty heavily. Anyone catch how the
> JV> balloons swirled around field level after the first touchdown?  
> 
> JV> My job takes me to a lot of college and NFL games and a fair amount of
> JV> HS games too and to imply that there are all kinds of HS kickers who can
> JV> routinely make 50+ yard field goals or that there are random kids
> JV> walking the campus in Lincoln right now that could make them also might
> JV> be a little misleading and probably a lot absurd. 
> 
> JV> Consider that in the NFL, home to arguably the sport's best kickers,
> JV> through Week 7 only 13 of the 30 leading FG kickers in the NFL have a
> JV> long field goal make in excess of 50 yards and that NONE has a FG make
> JV> like the 58 yd FG people are suggesting that we should have tried. In
> JV> fact only 1 kicker in the NFL period (who is not in the top 30 in FG
> JV> makes) has a make of 58 yards +, and that is Matt Bryant of Tampa Bay
> JV> (who kicked a 62-yarder to win the game on Sunday). Further, through
> JV> Week 7 in the NFL, 11 teams or nearly 1/3 of the league, haven't even
> JV> attempted a FG in excess of 50 yards and amongst teams that have
> JV> attempted at least one the results are 19 makes against 44 misses - a
> JV> conversion percentage of only 43%. Of those teams, 6 or nearly 20% of
> JV> the league have made 0% or none of their 50+ yd attempts. 
> 
> JV> So do the special teams need help - absolutely. But, could any kicker on
> JV> the roster, your average HS kicker, some mystery student walking the
> JV> campus or even your average NFL kicker likely have made a FG of 50+
> JV> yards - nevertheless one from 58 yards with a swirling wind - PROBABLY
> JV> NOT!!!! 
> 
> JV> The hail mary was without question our best option to score and to
> JV> suggest otherwise is just an excuse to criticize the coaching staff - at
> JV> least in my humble opinion. If you throw the hail mary you have the
> JV> chance for an additional penalty (which would have definitely moved the
> JV> ball into FG range) or a tip and a catch for the win. Lining up for a FG
> JV> lets us all watch the ball flutter through the air and land at the 5 -
> JV> not even close to a make and with no real chance for anything else to
> JV> happen that could extend or win the game. 
> 
> JV> Jeff
> 
> 
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