[personal] RE: [Husker] UT-NU Observations from the Press Box

Mon Oct 23 18:27:13 CDT 2006

Hello Husker Fans,

The problem with that argument is 42% from 50+, not 42% from 58.  I
would bet (sorry, I'm not going through all 86 kicks) that at least
80% of those are 50-55 yards, not 55-60 yards.

And the fact that 4 kickers make up almost a 1/3 of all 50+ yard kicks
suggest that not many kickers can do it.

-- 
Go Skers,
 Skylar                            mailto:Sklarbodds at cox.net

SR> The stats you post, 42% from 50+, sound pretty good.  How many QBs
SR> complete Hail Mary's with "any sort of consistency"?  NU had two
SR> shots at the Hail Mary on Saturday and went 0-2.  Yes, it was a very
SR> long FG, even with the 30mph tail-wind, but the odds of success with
SR> the Hail Mary might be even less.  No one is saying a FG attempt
SR> would have been made "consistently" or "regularly" (your words), so
SR> in arguing against that, it's with your own straw man.

SR> This is my last post on this topic.  Whether the odds were better
SR> for the Hail Mary (which failed twice) or not, is open to speculation
SR> --- which is what I did.  However, with a 30mph tailwind, a FG of that
SR> length is possible (albeit a literal "long shot") for many kickers,
SR> even some HS kickers.  That, is a FACT, re: Chris McClanthan's 59yd
SR> FG, 1999, Millard South vs Lincoln East:
SR> http://www.nsaahome.org/textfile/fbl/fballrec.html

>> Hello Husker Fans,
>> 
>> Very few kickers can hit from 58 with any sort of consistency. Seeing
>> as how 28% of all 50+ yard field goals are made from 4 kickers (see
>> below), it seems obvious that 50+ yard field goal kickers are not the
>> norm. Let's be frank here, we're not just talking about 50, we're
>> talking about 58 which is a lot closer to 60, a near impossible range
>> for ANY kicker. In fact, only 5 kickers in the HISTORY of the NFL have
>> kicked 59 yards or longer (Tom Dempsey, Jason Elam, Steve Cox, Morten
>> Anderson, and recently Matt Bryant). But sure, most high school kids
>> can do it.
>> 
>> I would even say that very few kickers can hit from 45+ with
>> consistency. Even out of our more recent kickers, I would think Josh
>> Brown (career high of 58 btw and 9/15 from 50+ in the NFL) would be
>> one of the few that can do it regularly.
>> 
>> NCAA Stats on 50+ yard kicks:
>> All Div I schools: 36 of 86 or 41.9% from 50+, 0 of 3 from 60+ (CU 0-2
>> and New Mex 0-1)
>> 
>> Attempts: 55 schools have attempted 50+ kicks, Only 4 schools have
>> attempted more than 2 (WF 4-6, OSU 2-4, KSU 2-3, Colorado 2-4).  Of
>> those 55, 27 have never made one (49.1%)
>> 
>> If a bunch of HS kids can kick 50+ regularly, they sure seem to forget
>> when they get to college and the NFL.
>> 
>> -- 
>> Go Skers,
>>  Skylar                            mailto:Sklarbodds at cox.net
>> 
>> JV> Steve,
>> 
>> JV> I could have sworn from my seat that it was just inside the 45, which
>> JV> would be a 62-yard attempt but I could be wrong. Either way it is a kick
>> JV> that is way outside of our guy's range, even with the wind - which while
>> JV> at his back was also swirling pretty heavily. Anyone catch how the
>> JV> balloons swirled around field level after the first touchdown?  
>> 
>> JV> My job takes me to a lot of college and NFL games and a fair amount of
>> JV> HS games too and to imply that there are all kinds of HS kickers who can
>> JV> routinely make 50+ yard field goals or that there are random kids
>> JV> walking the campus in Lincoln right now that could make them also might
>> JV> be a little misleading and probably a lot absurd. 
>> 
>> JV> Consider that in the NFL, home to arguably the sport's best kickers,
>> JV> through Week 7 only 13 of the 30 leading FG kickers in the NFL have a
>> JV> long field goal make in excess of 50 yards and that NONE has a FG make
>> JV> like the 58 yd FG people are suggesting that we should have tried. In
>> JV> fact only 1 kicker in the NFL period (who is not in the top 30 in FG
>> JV> makes) has a make of 58 yards +, and that is Matt Bryant of Tampa Bay
>> JV> (who kicked a 62-yarder to win the game on Sunday). Further, through
>> JV> Week 7 in the NFL, 11 teams or nearly 1/3 of the league, haven't even
>> JV> attempted a FG in excess of 50 yards and amongst teams that have
>> JV> attempted at least one the results are 19 makes against 44 misses - a
>> JV> conversion percentage of only 43%. Of those teams, 6 or nearly 20% of
>> JV> the league have made 0% or none of their 50+ yd attempts. 
>> 
>> JV> So do the special teams need help - absolutely. But, could any kicker on
>> JV> the roster, your average HS kicker, some mystery student walking the
>> JV> campus or even your average NFL kicker likely have made a FG of 50+
>> JV> yards - nevertheless one from 58 yards with a swirling wind - PROBABLY
>> JV> NOT!!!! 
>> 
>> JV> The hail mary was without question our best option to score and to
>> JV> suggest otherwise is just an excuse to criticize the coaching staff - at
>> JV> least in my humble opinion. If you throw the hail mary you have the
>> JV> chance for an additional penalty (which would have definitely moved the
>> JV> ball into FG range) or a tip and a catch for the win. Lining up for a FG
>> JV> lets us all watch the ball flutter through the air and land at the 5 -
>> JV> not even close to a make and with no real chance for anything else to
>> JV> happen that could extend or win the game. 
>> 
>> JV> Jeff
>> 
>> 
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