[Husker] Gameplan/Matchup (Very Long, like usual)
Skylar Dodds
Sklarbodds at cox.net
Wed Oct 18 11:03:09 CDT 2006
Hello Husker Fans,
I for one hope that we don't "stubbornly" try to run the ball.
Texas's running defense is not just good, it's great. They're #2 in
the nation in rush defense for a reason. Here's a breakdown of
yardage of their opponents:
Team Att Yds Avg
N. Tex 28 8 .3
OSU 29 79 2.7
Rice 20 -11 -.6
ISU 27 21 .8
Sam Hou 25 87 3.5
OU 36 124 3.6
Baylor 11 27 2.5
TOTAL 176 334 1.9
Yikes, that's some defense. Plus, the've only allowed 3 touchdowns
from the ground. Wow. Granted, some of these teams aren't very good,
but some are. Oklahoma is 25th in the nation in rushing, Ohio St is
44th.
However, their passing defense isn't that great. They rank #77 in
pass defense and have given up some decent games to not so great
opponents.
Team Att Yds yds/att
N. Tex 19 87 4.6
OSU 26 269 10.3
Rice 29 180 6.2
ISU 45 302 6.7
Sam Hou 26 105 4.0
OU 27 209 7.7
Baylor 48 320 6.7
TOTAL 220 1472 6.7
Scoring Defense Texas is tied for #15 with Missouri (NU is #13).
However, I think they're most vulnerable in the passing game.
I would be surprised if we can average 2.5+ per rush versus Texas, I
really would. I'd be tickled if we averaged more than 3. IMHO, if we
come out and rush the ball 80% of the time, we lose. That's playing
right into their strength, period. USC is 23rd in rush defense
giving up a little over 100 yards / game and we averaged 1.9
yards/carry in that game. Texas is giving up 47 yards per game.
=====================================
Match Up - Why I think we have a shot
=====================================
NU Offense vs UT Defense It seems to me that Callahan's strategy on
the road is run, defend, shorten the game, score early, and hold on.
At home, he's opened it up a lot more (albiet against lesser
competition). I think our passing game is VERY good. I think it's
one of the best in the Big XII and has not really been used against
a really good opponent. PLUS, I think Taylor is the type of QB that
NEEDS to throw more to be consistent. IMHO, if he attempts less than
20 passes, I wouldn't expect more than a 55% completion, BUT if he
attempts 30 or 40, I would expect a 65% completion, again, IMHO
I hope we throw fairly early, and if successful, we may be able to
run successfully later. I don't see us coming out of the gates with
a 10-play 80-yard drive with 9 rushes and 5:00 off the clock. I just
don't see that happening. I really hope we'll use Taylor's arm to
get up early, then use the run to shorten the game up a little. It
should be easier to run if we've had a little success in the passing
game.
NU Defense vs UT Offense
UT's offense is pretty balanced, a lot like ours. Texas is #20 in
the nation with 187.43 yards / game. They average 4.9 yards / carry
and have scored 15 rushing TDs. Their passing offense is #57 with
206 yards / game, however they are very efficient with a 174.29
rating (5th in the US, vs NU @ 173.39 for 6th in the US).
I think our defensive strength is stopping the run. I really
believe we can slow them down on the ground and hold them to under
100 yards, or at least stop them early (under 50 at half).
They really use Colt McCoy conservatively. Against OU, Colt threw
only 18 times (completed 11) for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. Against
OSU, he threw 32 times (but they were behind), completed 19 and
threw 1 int and 1 touchdown. His biggest game was last week vs
Baylor where he threw 32 times, completed 21 for 275 yards and 6
touchdowns (1 int).
My hunch is with this being his first real 'road' game (first game
outside of the state of Texas), Mack Brown will use him VERY
conservatively. I don't expect Colt to get more than 15 attempts,
unless NU is able to build up a decent lead and they are forced to
throw often.
Watch for a lot of 'possession' passes to Sweed (6'5" 219 lbs) when
they do throw. Sweed is VERY good, and I've got to imagine Mack
likes the match up against our MUCH smaller corners. He's good at
getting his body in position and blocking off defenders. He is
statistically the best receiver they have, by far. He averages 68
yards / game (476 total yards), 17.6 yards per catch and 8 TDs (the
rest of the team combines for 9 TDs).
===========================
Summary and Prognostication
===========================
If we use our bull-headed-run-at-you-no-matter-what we lose. NO WAY
are we going to be able to move the ball by putting it on the ground
EVERY time.
If we use Zac's arm to soften the defense, we've got a shot. It
seems weird to say this, since both teams are in the top 10 in
scoring nationwide, but I think we should hold them to under 25. I
think our chances of scoring rest solely on our O-line protection
and Zac's efficiency. We can't afford turnovers and we have to hit
the throws that are open. I think we need to throw on 1st down more
than we run.
If we throw more than 50%:
UT - 24
NU - 31
If we run more than 50%:
UT - 31
NU - 13
I'm normally a big fan of establishing the run, and I'm definitely
NOT suggesting we abandon it. But I don't think we can 'run at
will' by any stretch.
Estimated Stats:
Nebraska:
Zac - 19/27 250 3 TDs / 1 INT
Purify - 8 catches, 132 yards 2 TDs
Nun - 4 catches, 59 yards 0 TD
Phillips - 2 catches, 10 yards, 1 TD
BJax - 12 carries, 38 yards
Glenn - 6 carries, 20 yards 1 TD
Lucky - 6 carries, 40 yards / 3 catches, 28 yards
Wilson - 1 carry, 2 yards
Texas:
Colt - 10/15 1 TD / 1 INT
Sweed - 7 catches, 85 yards 1 TD
Jammal Charles - 18 carries / 78 yards / 1 TD
Selvin Young - 8 carries / 20 yards / 1 TD
That's all I've got :) GO HUSKERS! We have a 40% chance of winning
in my estimation. As of right now, UT is favored by 6 1/2 I
believe.
--
Go Skers,
Skylar mailto:Sklarbodds at cox.net
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