[Husker] Matchup vs aTm

Fri Nov 10 12:52:10 CST 2006

This game has been giving me fits all week long. I was a bit worried about the OK State game, but this could match that outcome very easily. If Nebraska is able to go to A&M with the crowd there and pull out a win, it will speak VOLUMES about the character of this team. Despite being ranked at or near the bottom of the top 25, A&M is a much better team than people think, especially at home.

I too am puzzled by the Nebraska by 1 point spread, even though I am well aware this is for bookmakers to balance out the betting action. Usually these spreads are close, if not dead on much of the time.

This is one of the few games this season where I really have no guess as to how it could turn out. But, I see a Nebraska victory, perhaps something like 28-24. I sure hope I'm right!

GBR

Scott in NY

-----Original Message-----
From: husker-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:husker-bounces at tssi.com]On Behalf
Of Matt Phillips
Sent: Friday, November 10, 2006 1:00 PM
To: Husker List
Subject: Re: [Husker] Matchup vs aTm

Sweet post, thanks.

I wish I shared your optimism with regard to the final score!  I imagine a
real dog fight.  A&M has only lost 2 games, by a total of 5 points.  Plus,
mobile quarterbacks ALWAYS seem to give us fits... and our linebackers are
nicked up... hostile crowd...and the aggies are only getting 1 point?

That said, we win 28-20.  :)

GBR,
~m

On 11/10/06, Skylar Dodds <Sklarbodds at cox.net> wrote:
>
> Hello Husker Fans,
>
> Since I'm long winded (as many of you know), I'm going to put a
> summary of my thoughts at the beginning of the email.
>
> I really think we can and will win on Saturday.  I think our
> strengths really line up well against theirs.   They strength is the
> run, our strength is stopping the run.  Their weakness is scoring in
> the red zone, we tend to letup a fair amount of yards, but not that
> many points and so on and so forth.
>
> My Prediction: NU 27 - aTm 13
>
> That being said, we're on the road so logic is thrown out the
> window!
>
> Their defense is solid. They pretty good against the run and not bad
> against the pass.
>
> NU Stat Advantage (Total/Natl Rank/Big XII rank):
> =================================================
> Passing offense: 246.40/23rd/4th       194.50/61st/9th
> Pass efficiency: 167.67/4th/2nd        138.65/32nd/5th
> Total offense:   435.00/10th/2nd       407.20/17th/5th
> Scoring offense: 34.20/12th/3rd        31.30/20th/5th
> Rushing defense: 120.20/45th/4th       128.30/51st/6th
> Pass eff. def.:  115.28/40th/2nd       116.37/44th/4th
> Scoring defense: 17.70/t-30th/t-3rd    18.70/37th/5th
> Punt returns:    9.03/56th/7th         8.53/65th/9th
> Turnover margin: +0.70/20th/2nd        +0.50/30th/4th
>
> aTm Stat Advantage (Total/Natl Rank/Big XII rank):
> ==================================================
> Rushing offense: 188.60/17th/3rd       212.70/8th/1st
> Pass defense:    221.90/86th/7th       181.50/38th/4th
> Total defense:   342.10/73rd/8th       309.80/45th/5th
> Net punting:     37.40/22nd/4th        37.68/16th/3rd
> Kickoff returns: 17.89/104th/12th      28.58/2nd/2nd
>
>
> aTm is pretty balanced on defense. They're mid-upper in the big XII
> in every category. I'm guessing Callahan will go with his usual road
> strategy of run first pass, second. OU followed that model and
> escaped with a win (I believe their RB had like 35+ carries).
>
> On offense, aTm is definitely a run first, pass second team. They
> average about 42 rush/game and 25 pass/game. On the season they've
> averaged 5.0 yards per carry and they essentially run 3 different
> running backs regularly (counting the QB).
>
> Goodson is their quick back, he's fast and has a potential to break
> big plays (7.0 yds/carry and 64 yard longest rush).  He's 6'0" and
> only 192lbs.  He's a Fr to boot, so we'll see him next year too.
>
> Lane (So) is their Mack-Truck back. He does get more carries (127 vs
> 88 for Goodson) but only has a 4.5 yds/rush because of the
> situations he's in. The most glaring stat, however, is Lane has 18
> touchdowns vs 2 for Goodson and 2 for McGee. They will line him up
> when they get down to the goal line and don't apologize for it. He's
> coming, good luck stopping him. For those of you who haven't seen
> aTm this year, he's huge (6'0" 274lbs) but surprisingly agile for
> his size. He is tough to bring down and has pretty good balance.
>
> Their QB caps the rushing attack. He's 6'3" 208 Sophomore who runs a
> 4.5 40, he's a great runner. He averages just under 50 yards per
> game but it would be over 60 if you took out negative yards (sacks).
> He's not all rush though, he's pretty efficient with a 62.6%
> completion and 11 TDs vs 2 Ints. aTm doesn't want him dropping back
> to throw every down, but he's definitely capable. In HS, he set the
> Texas 3A state record for touchdown passes with 101.
>
> Either way, it should be a good matchup.  Scoring won't come easy,
> my prediction involves a late touchdown to distance ourselves.
>
> It should make for good television anyway!
>
> --
> Go Skers,
> Skylar                            mailto:Sklarbodds at cox.net
>
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Matt Phillips
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