[Husker] Matchup vs aTm

[Skylar Dodds]

Hello Husker Fans,

  Since I'm long winded (as many of you know), I'm going to put a
  summary of my thoughts at the beginning of the email.

  I really think we can and will win on Saturday.  I think our
  strengths really line up well against theirs.   They strength is the
  run, our strength is stopping the run.  Their weakness is scoring in
  the red zone, we tend to letup a fair amount of yards, but not that
  many points and so on and so forth.

  My Prediction: NU 27 - aTm 13

  That being said, we're on the road so logic is thrown out the
  window!

  Their defense is solid. They pretty good against the run and not bad
  against the pass.

  NU Stat Advantage (Total/Natl Rank/Big XII rank):
  =================================================
  Passing offense: 246.40/23rd/4th       194.50/61st/9th
  Pass efficiency: 167.67/4th/2nd        138.65/32nd/5th
  Total offense:   435.00/10th/2nd       407.20/17th/5th
  Scoring offense: 34.20/12th/3rd        31.30/20th/5th
  Rushing defense: 120.20/45th/4th       128.30/51st/6th
  Pass eff. def.:  115.28/40th/2nd       116.37/44th/4th
  Scoring defense: 17.70/t-30th/t-3rd    18.70/37th/5th
  Punt returns:    9.03/56th/7th         8.53/65th/9th
  Turnover margin: +0.70/20th/2nd        +0.50/30th/4th

  aTm Stat Advantage (Total/Natl Rank/Big XII rank):
  ==================================================
  Rushing offense: 188.60/17th/3rd       212.70/8th/1st
  Pass defense:    221.90/86th/7th       181.50/38th/4th
  Total defense:   342.10/73rd/8th       309.80/45th/5th
  Net punting:     37.40/22nd/4th        37.68/16th/3rd
  Kickoff returns: 17.89/104th/12th      28.58/2nd/2nd


  aTm is pretty balanced on defense. They're mid-upper in the big XII
  in every category. I'm guessing Callahan will go with his usual road
  strategy of run first pass, second. OU followed that model and
  escaped with a win (I believe their RB had like 35+ carries).

  On offense, aTm is definitely a run first, pass second team. They
  average about 42 rush/game and 25 pass/game. On the season they've
  averaged 5.0 yards per carry and they essentially run 3 different
  running backs regularly (counting the QB).

  Goodson is their quick back, he's fast and has a potential to break
  big plays (7.0 yds/carry and 64 yard longest rush).  He's 6'0" and
  only 192lbs.  He's a Fr to boot, so we'll see him next year too.

  Lane (So) is their Mack-Truck back. He does get more carries (127 vs
  88 for Goodson) but only has a 4.5 yds/rush because of the
  situations he's in. The most glaring stat, however, is Lane has 18
  touchdowns vs 2 for Goodson and 2 for McGee. They will line him up
  when they get down to the goal line and don't apologize for it. He's
  coming, good luck stopping him. For those of you who haven't seen
  aTm this year, he's huge (6'0" 274lbs) but surprisingly agile for
  his size. He is tough to bring down and has pretty good balance.

  Their QB caps the rushing attack. He's 6'3" 208 Sophomore who runs a
  4.5 40, he's a great runner. He averages just under 50 yards per
  game but it would be over 60 if you took out negative yards (sacks).
  He's not all rush though, he's pretty efficient with a 62.6%
  completion and 11 TDs vs 2 Ints. aTm doesn't want him dropping back
  to throw every down, but he's definitely capable. In HS, he set the
  Texas 3A state record for touchdown passes with 101.

  Either way, it should be a good matchup.  Scoring won't come easy,
  my prediction involves a late touchdown to distance ourselves.

  It should make for good television anyway!

-- 
Go Skers,
 Skylar                            mailto:Sklarbodds at cox.net