[Husker] interesting OWH article

[Steve Reichenbach]

3aoo-cvfd writes:

> To be fair ... to assess our progress in 2006, we should
> compare it to 2002....

It is disingenuous and disembling to compare Callhan's best year with
Solich's worst year as a "fair assessment of progress".  I suspect that
your purpose is really to make this argument ridiculuous and tiresome
rather than to make a fair assessment --- you don't really want an
objective analysis of the progress-to-date.

That is in keeping with your hypocritical dismissal of NU's playing in
the 2001 BCS Championship game after a season with one loss to the Big
12 Champion on its own field as meaningless while claiming that NU's
playing in the Big 12 Championship game this year despite at least two
conference losses including one to a team that is currently in last
place in the Southern Division is great progress.

The objective truth of the matter is that the verdict on whether this
year is really progress relative to Solich's record (despite the
prospect of winning the Big 12 North with a worse record than any Big
12 North Champion during the Solich years) remains to be seen.

  If NU wins three or four of the next four games (to finish 11-3 or
  10-4 overall and 6-2 or 5-3 in conference), that will be about as
  good as Solich's third or fourth best years (12-1 & 7-1 in 1999, 11-2
  & 7-1 in 2001, 10-2 & 6-2 in 2000, 10-3 & 5-3 in 2003).  In that
  case, almost everyone will be encouraged by the progress relative to
  Callahan's first two years and will be hopeful that Callahan will get
  NU back to having seasons with 12-1 or 11-2 records (as in Solich's
  best years) or better.  Most will be happy with that progress.

  If NU loses three or four more games (to finish 8-6, 7-6, or 7-7 &
  5-3 or 4-4), that will be about as good as Solich's worst two years
  (9-4 & 5-3 in 1998, 7-7 & 3-5 in 2002).  In that case, almost
  everyone will view even 8-6 as not much progress even with respect
  to last year (let alone Solich's record).  Most will be unhappy
  with that lack of progress.

  If NU goes 2-2 (to finish 9-5 & 6-2, 5-3, or 4-4), it's progress
  compared to Callahan's first two years and even compared to Solich's
  records in 1998 and 2002, but it's clearly not progress compared to
  Solich's record 1999, 2001, and 2000 and it's not even clearly better
  than 2003.  In that case, I think most will view this with restive
  patience as Callahan making progress relative to his own record but
  not very rapid progress toward higher ambitions.  A few will view
  it as "Callahan is failing" and a few will view it as "Callahan is
  succeeding", but most will still think "it's too soon to tell" if
  the progress is satisfactory.

I'd like to see the first scenario (winning 3 or 4 more) play out, but
I think it is maybe 1 in 4 odds.  The third scenario (finishing 2-2)
is more likely, maybe 1 in 2 odds (with a likely win against CU, a
likely loss against Texas, and even odds against A&M and the bowl game).
I think the second scenario (losing 3 or 4 more) is quite possible,
maybe 1 in 4 odds (e.g., losing to A&M, Texas, and the bowl game).

The prospects for next four games are exciting.