[Husker] MLB Draft Update

[Jeff Volk]

Jon,

The MLB Draft started in 1965. Prior to 1965 scouts would run around the
country looking at amateur players who were basically all free-agents
who could sign with the highest bidder. There are a lot of great old
stories about scouts and the lengths that they would go to in order to
sign players. Because of what became some fairly shady practices by a
lot of those scouts, baseball introduced the draft. 

Currently the following types of players are MLB draft eligible:

- HS Seniors
- Juco Players
- College Jrs & Srs or any college player that turns 21 prior to that
year's draft

In the case of HS and college players a team retains that player's
rights through the summer until they start classes the following fall.
In the case of HS players who attend a Juco or Juco players a team
retains that player's rights through a date just prior to the following
year's draft. 

International players outside of US Territories are free-agents just
like American players were prior to 1965. Every MLB team runs several
Baseball Acadamies in Latin America that are staffed by scouts and
instructors who sign and develop those players. 

The MLB Draft is probably the most challenging for scouts and
player/personnel types than in any other sport. With the recent
restrictions on drafting HS players in the NBA, both NBA and NFL scouts
are primarily looking at players who they largely expect to contribute
or make a roster almost immediately. In the MLB draft, where more HS
players are taken in most drafts than college players, and where even
college players aren't projected to be a big league contributor for 2-5
years there is a lot of margin for error. 

Baseball scouts break down players into 5 basic tools. Those tools are
hitting, power, speed, arm and fielding. These tools are slightly
different for pitchers than position players but are generally the same.


Each one of those basic tools are then given a grade. Some teams use a
2-8 grading scale while others use a 20-80 grading scale. A 5 (or a 50)
is considered Major League average. A 90 mph fastball is generally
considered ML average, a 6.9 - 60 yd dash is ML average, etc. Each of
the 5 basic tools are then further broken down into sub catergories, all
of which are also graded and help comprise an overall tool grade. 

The challenge that all MLB scouts face is one of projections. If you
take a 5-11, 180 lb 17-year old HS pitcher you not only have to grade
what he can do today, but PROJECT what you think he might be able to do
in 4 or 5 years. Will his currently 89 MPH fastball run up into the low
90s as he grows to 6-2, fills out and adds muscle? Will work on his
mechanics increase the velocity and action on his FB? Will coaching be
able to improve his slider. Can he learn an effective change-up, etc. 

This being the case scouts give all players a Present and a Future
grade. Using our example HS pitcher, I might give him a 4 for his
present FB grade but a 6 for his future FB grade if I think he is going
to grow, fill out and through improved mechanics increase his FB from 89
to 93/94. 

All of these tool grades are then averaged together to give a prospect
an overall grade. That grade generally dictates roughly what round a
prospect should be drafted in. Other issues, such as signability, past
injuries, etc. may increase or decrease an overall prospect's draft
status. The example of this with the Huskers is Werhle and Watson, both
of whom have talent grades that dictated they be drafted higher, but due
to signability questions (their leverage to return to school) they were
drafted lower than their talent dictates. 

Due to the large number of players required to fill a minor league
system a HUGE number of players are drafted. In the just completed 2006
MLB Draft there were over 1,500 players taken in over 50 rounds. Because
of the number of players drafted and because of the inexact science of
all the projections, where you are drafted doesn't have a great
correlation to whether or not you make the big leagues. 

Of all the players on the 2003 & 2004 All-Star Game rosters 30 were
international players, 59 were drafted in rounds 1 through 10, 33 were
drafted in rounds 11 + and 1 was not drafted at all.

A further breakdown is:

International		30
Round 1			36
Round 2			8
Round 3 - 5			10
Round 6 - 10		15
Round 11 - 20		6
Round 21+			12
Undrafted			1

There are plenty of MLB All-Stars and some potential future HOF'ers who
were drafted very late. Andy Pettitte was a 22nd round choice, Roy
Oswalt in the 23rd, Jorge Posada in the 24th, Paul LoDuca in the 25th,
Mark Buerhle in the 38th, Kenny Rogers in the 39th and Mike Piazza in
the 62nd round - the 1,390th player taken overall that year. 

The lowest drafted player ever to appear in a MLB game was Scott
Seabold, a 88th round pick in 1996 from the U of West Virginia who
appeared in a game for the NY Yankees in 2001. 

Hopefully this little primer on the MLB Draft answered some of your
questions. If not it was fun for me to type and reminded me how much I
miss being involved in scouting and player/development. Those years
beating the bushes for future MLB players were some fun years. 

Have a great day!

Jeffrey Volk