[Husker] ISU/Texas Tech/Collier/Sutton

[Steve Reichenbach]

> The Texas Tech game is the only one of the last five in which Sagarin
> favors NU, so it looks to be another must win for NU.  If NU can lose
> only one or two more games, losing to Texas Tech would be a disaster.

Steve Sipple (who admittedly is not a genius) lambastes Collier
for his substitutions against Tech.  I've got to agree --- the
substitions seemed overly cautious in a game that was very big
for NU.

Things elsewhere went NU's way:  KSU beat CU, so an NU victory would
have put NU into tie for fourth place with a chance to take sole
possession of fourth place (position for a first round bye at the Big
12 tournament) when CU comes to Lincoln.  ISU and Missouri lost, giving
four teams 8 conference losses.  Texas A&M's victory over Baylor was
the only sour conference note outside Lincoln.

With so much on the line, including possibly Collier's job, it's
difficult to understand why Collier didn't fire up the team and
put the game on his players' shoulders --- tell Maric he had to play
smart and not get another first half foul but that this game was so
important that they were going to leave everything on the court.

Now, it's looks like CU will finish 10-6 or at least 9-7 even if NU
beats them in Lincoln (7-5 with @NU, Missouri, @KU, ISU).  Texas A&M
also has a good shot at 9-7 with a road win against Texas Tech (6-6
with @Missouri, NU, Texas, @Tech).  Texas Tech will have to scamble to
finish 8-8, but has its two tougher games at home (6-6 with OU, @OSU,
@Baylor, A&M).  It's difficult to see K State getting to 8-8 (5-7
with Texas, @OU, @NU, KU).  ISU would have to win 4 straight to finish
8-8, but three of the four are very winnable (4-8 with OSU, @Baylor,
Missouri, @CU).

Of course it's possible that NU could win each of its next four
games and wins against CU and A&M would give NU victories against
the teams contending for fourth place, but I think it might be time
to be hopeful even for a split of the next two.  That would give NU
a shot at 9-7 and make anything less than 8-8 a very bad end.  At
9-7, NU could finish as high as a tie for fourth.  Even at 8-8, NU
likely would finish sixth, perhaps in a tie with Tech, in which
case NU would lose the tie breaker based on last night's loss.

Maybe it's not that big of a loss.  NU isn't good enough to go very
far in any tournament and Collier hasn't made a greate case for
sticking with him.