[Husker] ISU/Texas Tech/Collier/Sutton

[Steve Reichenbach]

> Now regarding Coach Collier, I will say right now that I will be
> greatly disappointed if we let him go after this season. Besides being
> an outstanding person I think the level of players has improved over
> the past year or so and we are on the brink of some exciting things
> here in Lincoln. I think this talk of letting Coach go can be quieted
> down if we can win 4 of our remaining 5 games, doing so would put us at
> 20-9 going into the Big XII Tournament in Dallas. A win or two in
> Dallas and we may very well be headed for the NCAA Tournament, and if
> that happens I don't know how we can let him go [...].

If NU wins 4 of the next 5 to finish 10-6 in the conference, I agree
that there won't be much momentum to replace Collier.  (Of course,
Solich was fired during a 10-3 season, so regardless of what people
are saying, it is difficult to guess what Pederson will do.)  I thnk
that Collier may keep talk of change quiet with even less than 4 of
the next 5 --- for example, 3 of the next 5 (to finish 9-7) and two
wins in the Big 12 Tournament would be quite a step up for NU.

There was criticism when I posted Sagarin's ratings a couple of weeks
ago, but here they are though yesterday's games.  I'm surprised NU isn't
rated better after the ISU game, but I'm sure neither the big loss to KU
at home nor the 21-point road loss to Texas helped.  I agree that NU
played very well against ISU and looks to be improving, but ISU didn't
look very good yesterday (and there record supports that).

The Texas Tech game is the only one of the last five in which Sagarin
favors NU, so it looks to be another must win for NU.  If NU can lose
only one or two more games, losing to Texas Tech would be a disaster.

I watched the end of the CU-OU game and CU looked good, although
apparently they had to come from far behind earlier in the game and
were playing at home.  CU's only conference losses have been @Texas,
KU, @ISU, and @A&M.  NU should be rooting for KSU (4-7) to beat CU.
Still, NU is at home and if the Huskers are riding a two-game winning
streak after beating Texas Tech, then this is a winnable game, even
if CU would be favored.

After back-to-back losses @OU and @Texas, A&M has beaten CU and OSU.
Even with road games @Baylor and @Missouri, A&M could be riding a
four game winning streak when they return home to play the Huskers.
This will be a tough win for NU.

KSU has lost 5 of its last 6, although 4 of those were on the road.
With CU and then Texas at home and then OU on the road, before playing
@NU, KSU is in for a tough stretch.  Unless NU beats CU and/or wins
@A&M, the KSU game is a must win.

After losing 6 in a row and 7 of 8, Missouri got a narrow win at home
against KSU, but could return to losing when it visits KU this week.
Sometimes teams in crisis pull together, but 3 of its next 4 are on
the road, including CU and ISU.  Missouri could be 5-10 or worse when
NU comes to finish the season.  This is a a better chance for a road
than @A&M.

NU did what it needed with the tough three game stretch of KU, @Texas,
and @ISU --- win at least one.  Now, a good scenario for NU would be
to beat Texas Tech, win a game against Colorado or Texas A&M (more
likely CU at home), and then look to close strong against KSU and
@Missouri.

Texas Tech - NU favored by 75.24+3.96-77.59 = 1.61
Colorado - CU favored by 86.73-3.96-75.24 = 7.53
@Texas A&M - A&M favored by 81.45+3.96-75.24 = 10.17
Kansas State - KSU favored by 81.47-3.96-75.24 = 2.27
@Missouri - Missouri favored by 74.64+3.96-75.24 = 3.36

 27  Colorado                =  84.98   17   5   74.14( 137)    0   1  |    1   2  |   83.35   37 |   86.73   15
 61  Texas A&M               =  80.99   15   7   73.19( 171)    0   1  |    1   4  |   80.17   66 |   81.45   61
 85  Kansas State            =  79.32   13   9   74.48( 121)    0   0  |    1   1  |   77.19  111 |   81.47   58
 97  Nebraska                =  78.15   16   8   74.52( 120)    0   1  |    1   4  |   81.22   55 |   75.24  128
104  Texas Tech              =  77.61   13  12   76.57(  62)    0   2  |    0   5  |   77.21  110 |   77.59  102
128  Missouri                =  75.82   11  11   76.21(  68)    0   2  |    2   3  |   76.60  118 |   74.64  137