[Husker] NU Basketball Big 12 second half (long)

[dryter at inebraska.com]

I would think that the Sagarin line will change as the season goes on.  Sagarin
has to be looking at the NU meltdowns and perhaps not the rebound that they're
having.  On a side note, the team that made us wonder about the Huskers, FSU,
has shown to be a very good team and may have beaten Duke if it weren't for the
infamous technical foul that was cause for the officiating team to be suspended
for a game.

Teams on the upswing:
KU 6-2
NU 5-3
ISU 4-4

Teams cooling off:
CU 5-3

Teams fading from the radar screen:
KSU 3-5
BU 1-7
MU 3-6
TT 4-4
TAMU 3-6
OSU 3-5

Teams with a tough inside game
TX
KU (when they're on)
CU (Ashby and Copeland)

Teams with a tough backcourt/3-point game:
CU
TX
KSU
TAMU
ISU

Teams with a single star whose success is crucial to the team:
CU (Roby)
ISU (Stinson)
KSU (Cartier Martin)
TAMU (Joseph Jones)
TT (Jarrius Jackson)
MU (Thomas Gardner; see the TT game)

Teams that the Huskers match up well with:
KSU (NU can dominate inside)
KU (on a good night; key: defense riling up young KU players)
MU
TT
TAMU

Teams that are going to be hard to match up with:
ISU (NU's backcourt against Stinson)
TX (Tucker, Gibson, etc)
KU if Rush and Jackson are on
CU (3-point shooting, shot blocking)

Here's my optimistic rundown of how it's going to unfold.

The KU spread could be accurate, but good defense and a good showing by the
backcourt and Maric and I call it even.  Foul trouble for KU's big young guys
and if Walker gets hot and who knows.  KU by 3.

@ISU and @TX are both bad news, even with a good effort.  ISU humbled CU and has
found confidence behind Stinson; TX has too many weapons and too much talent and
size.  UT wins by 12 and the Huskers almost pull of the upset at Ames but lose
by 6.

Against CU at home, NU--and CU--will be a different team.  I don't know how any
team can get up for a game in the CU dungeon, the Coors Event Center.  For
years the best KU teams had a hard time winning there against undermanned CU
squads.  I think that NU should be 2-4 point underdogs at most, and will win
with a good effort inside against Copeland who leads the B12 in blocked
shots--combined with Ashby they have 26 on the season (note that Wes Wilkinson
and Maric are tied at 8th with a total of 18).  It appears that they spend a
lot of time blocking shots and not as much rebounding: though they get a lot of
rebounds (#2), they have a negative rebound margin.  The key will be defense in
the backcourt against the 3-point shot--CU leads the B12 in 3s made, though
they are the 4th best percentage, making 38%; NU ranks 10th in the B12 in
3-point defense, probably mostly due to the KU game and the first half against
BU.  Huskers win by 4 on free throws and a gritty performance by Wilkinson.

A 10-point underdog @A&M seems off the rails on a crazy train.  I would start
with 4-6 points and then adjust with the momentum that either team brings into
the game.  If NU can pull off my prediction against CU I think they win that
game against an Aggie team reeling from a last-second loss at MU--and never
count out the possibility of TAMU failing to live up to expectations.  Huskers
win by 5 on free throws down the stretch.

There is no way that I call KSU a favorite at Devaney.  They do not match up
well against the Huskers as we saw at Manhattan, and were bested by BU. 
Huskers win by 8+ to set up a game against MU who will have just lost in Ames,
which will determine the Huskers seed in the B12 tournament.  Maric gets B12
player of the week.

@MU will find the Huskers looking for a decent seeding in the B12 tourney
against a Tiger team trying to peel themselves off the floor after losing by 30
at Ames the previous Tuesday. NU will win with Dourisseau having a great day
defending Gardner who will miss a three to tie in the waning seconds.

NU will ride into the B12 tourney as the B12 Cinderella, make it to the NCAA as
a 10th seed and lose in the first round to St. Joe, prompting many to call for
a new coach ;)

Derek

-----Original Message-----
From: husker-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:husker-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of
Steve Reichenbach
Sent: Monday, February 06, 2006 8:35 AM
To: husker at tssi.com
Cc: reich at stork.inebraska.com
Subject: [Husker] NU Basketball Big 12 second half