[Husker] NU Basketball Big 12 second half

[Steve Reichenbach]

Last week, before the Baylor game, I posted that NU had a realistic
chance at 10-6 or 9-7 if they beat Baylor.  Here are the remaining 
games and Sagarin's lines:

KU    9 pt underdog
@TX  22 pt underdog
@ISU 10 pt underdog
Tech  2 pt favorite
CU    8 pt underdog
@A&M 10 pt underdog
KSU   3 pt underdog
@MU   4 pt underdog

That doesn't look so good for NU and after seeing NU struggle against
Baylor, I'd have to agree that the rest of the season, and especially
the next three games, will be an uphill struggle.  NU's next three
games are among its toughest.  Here are the games ordered by difficulty:

Best chances:
Tech  2 pt favorite
KSU   3 pt underdog
@MU   4 pt underdog

Tough chances:
CU    8 pt underdog
KU    9 pt underdog
@A&M 10 pt underdog
@ISU 10 pt underdog

Overwhelming odds:
@TX  22 pt underdog

In terms of time order, I think would be important for NU to avoid
losing the next three in a row.  Of those, the home game against KU
may be the best chance for a win.  That would put NU in a tie for
second in conference and would be consolation for a stretch run even
if NU lost its next two.

In terms of difficulty, NU looks to nead wins in at least three of its
home games, e.g., Tech, KSU, and either CU or KU, and one or two of its
away games, e.g., either A&M or ISU and then Missouri.

Using Sagarin's lines, the most likely scenario for a winning conference
record would have NU winning the one game it is favored to win against
Tech at home, gain two mild upsets against KSU in Lincoln and Missouri
in Columbia, and have a real upset of either KU or CU in Lincoln.  In
terms of team psychology, I think a win against KU is the best ingredient
for NU to put together 9 wins in the conference.

Unfortunately, based on the game against Baylor, I will be suprised
(quite happily) if that happens.