[Husker] Three new threads

[Steve Reichenbach]

I look at:
  http://www.covers.com/sports/ncf/ncf_lines.aspx
which posts lines from various books.  A visit to a couple of
the referenced books suggests that Yahoo has it wrong and that
NU is a three point underdog.

> Yahoo sports link to odds, if it is not mislabeled shows NU a 3 to
> 3.5 favorite in all the lines.  I know they just try to balance th
> money, but this seems strange.
> 
> http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/odds
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> >From: Steve Reichenbach <reich at inetnebr.com>
> 
> >Subject: Re: [Husker] Three new threads
> >
> >> Auburn might not be much of a favorite over NU.  Sagarin has Auburn
> >> with a predictor of 82.22 (#24) and NU with a predictor of 82.65
> >> (#20).  (Some other computers have Auburn much stronger.)  The early
> >> line opened with Auburn by 3, but the early line is now even.
> >
> >The line has settled in with NU a 3pt underdog.  The Big 12 bowl
> >matchups:
> >
> >BOWL      Visitor   Home       Spread  Sagarin
> >Indepence OKLA ST   Alabama     +3.0    +4.20  Favored more than spread
> >Holiday   Texas A&M CALIFORNIA  -5.0    -8.12  Bigger underdog than spread
> >Texas     Kansas St RUTGERS     -7.0    -9.55  Bigger underdog than spread
> >Sun       Missouri  OREGON ST   -4.0    -2.93  Underdog less than spread
> >Insight   Minnesota TEXAS TECH  -7.0    -3.18  Favored less than spread
> >Alamo     Iowa      TEXAS      -11.0   -13.05  Bigger favorite than spread
> >Cotton    Nebraska  AUBURN      -3.0    +0.43  Spread and computer differ
> >Fiesta    Boise St  OKLAHOMA    -8.5    -5.00  Favored less than spread
> >
> >The Big 12 is favored in half the games.
> >
> >Looking at Sagarin versus the spread, you'd like:
> >   OKLAHOMA ST even giving up 3pts
> >   Missouri may be 1.0pt better than -4.0pts
> >   TEXAS by even more than 11pts
> >   Nebraska may be 3.5pts better than -3.0pts
> >And, you wouldn't like:
> >   Texas A&M may lose by more than 5.0
> >   Kansas St may lose by more than 7.0
> >   TEXAS TECH may not clear the -7.0pt spread
> >   OKLAHOMA may not clear the -8.5pt spread
> >Of these games, Sagarin has NU the best bet.  Personally, on the basis
> >of the Big 12 Championship, I think NU's stock goes up and OU's stock
> >goes down even though OU won by 14pts.  I think the 8.5pt spread may
> >be too much for OU.  Of the games I'd disagree with Sagarin, I like
> >Kansas State to surprise Rutgers.  Another couple of weeks of practice
> >might help KSU more than Rutgers.
>