[Husker] HUSKERS -4

[Doug Gerrelts]

Thanks Steve,

Remember when we used to analyze results of our oponnents' performance 
against top 25 teams?   ;-)

Doug in MN

Steve Reichenbach wrote:

>>Spread for Saturday's game Huskers -4. Bet the house on  ISU.
>>    
>>
>
>I thought about betting (albeit, not the house) on NU against Wake
>Forest, with the line less than a touchdown, but I'm not a gambler
>and so passed up what I thought was easy money.
>
>Anyone betting the house on ISU is too focused on NU's struggles
>and not giving ISU the same scrutiny.  I don't feel as confident
>about this one, but I still like NU at home.  The home field
>advantage is figured to be worth 3+ points, so the teams are being
>assessed as being nearly equal.
>
>ISU has three wins:
>
>	32-21 over Illinois St. (3-1) at home
>	23-3 over Iowa (2-2) at home
>	28-21 over Army (0-3) away
>
>Iowa beat Ball State and Northern Iowa, but were beaten soundly
>at Iowa State and blown away at Ohio State.  NU beat Pitt 7-6.
>Matthews has Iowa at #63 with an 89.35pt rating and Pitt at #76
>with an 85.44 rating, so these are comparable opponents.  ISU's
>win looks several TDs better.
>
>Army has lost badly at Boston College, to Baylor at home, and
>Iowa State at home.  NU beat Wake Forest 31-3.  Matthews has
>Army at #110 with an 79.11pt rating and Wake Forest at #90 with
>an 82.53pt rating.  NU's win looks several TDs better.
>
>Iowa State's top two opponents average #86.5 and 84.23pts and
>NU's top two opponents average #83 and 83.99pts.  ISU's average
>margin of victory in these two games was 13.5 and NU's margin
>of victory in these two games was 14.5.  These games look to
>have the two teams about even.
>
>Illinois State's 3 wins are against Drake, at Eastern Illinois,
>and Murray State.  Is that better than NU beating Maine 25-7?
>
>Based on records to date this season, this looks like a tossup
>with the advantage to NU at home.  Personally, I like taking the
>home team with the better defense --- NU has given up an average
>of 5.33pts per game while ISU has given up an average of 15pts
>per game for a comparable schedule.  ISU gave up 3 TDs to its
>two weakest opponents and gave up 20 first downs to Iowa (despite
>5 Iowa turnovers) and 23 first downs to Army.  NU has given up an
>average of fewer than 15 first downs per game.  ISU has given up
>an average of more than 18 first downs per game.
>
>In looking at these records, I just don't see any reason ISU should
>be favored in Lincoln.
>
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