[Husker] HUSKERS -4

[Steve Reichenbach]

> Spread for Saturday's game Huskers -4. Bet the house on  ISU.

I thought about betting (albeit, not the house) on NU against Wake
Forest, with the line less than a touchdown, but I'm not a gambler
and so passed up what I thought was easy money.

Anyone betting the house on ISU is too focused on NU's struggles
and not giving ISU the same scrutiny.  I don't feel as confident
about this one, but I still like NU at home.  The home field
advantage is figured to be worth 3+ points, so the teams are being
assessed as being nearly equal.

ISU has three wins:

	32-21 over Illinois St. (3-1) at home
	23-3 over Iowa (2-2) at home
	28-21 over Army (0-3) away

Iowa beat Ball State and Northern Iowa, but were beaten soundly
at Iowa State and blown away at Ohio State.  NU beat Pitt 7-6.
Matthews has Iowa at #63 with an 89.35pt rating and Pitt at #76
with an 85.44 rating, so these are comparable opponents.  ISU's
win looks several TDs better.

Army has lost badly at Boston College, to Baylor at home, and
Iowa State at home.  NU beat Wake Forest 31-3.  Matthews has
Army at #110 with an 79.11pt rating and Wake Forest at #90 with
an 82.53pt rating.  NU's win looks several TDs better.

Iowa State's top two opponents average #86.5 and 84.23pts and
NU's top two opponents average #83 and 83.99pts.  ISU's average
margin of victory in these two games was 13.5 and NU's margin
of victory in these two games was 14.5.  These games look to
have the two teams about even.

Illinois State's 3 wins are against Drake, at Eastern Illinois,
and Murray State.  Is that better than NU beating Maine 25-7?

Based on records to date this season, this looks like a tossup
with the advantage to NU at home.  Personally, I like taking the
home team with the better defense --- NU has given up an average
of 5.33pts per game while ISU has given up an average of 15pts
per game for a comparable schedule.  ISU gave up 3 TDs to its
two weakest opponents and gave up 20 first downs to Iowa (despite
5 Iowa turnovers) and 23 first downs to Army.  NU has given up an
average of fewer than 15 first downs per game.  ISU has given up
an average of more than 18 first downs per game.

In looking at these records, I just don't see any reason ISU should
be favored in Lincoln.