[Husker] Blackshirts

[Bapi Gupta]

On Mon, 17 Oct 2005, Steve Reichenbach wrote:

>> After 6 games NU is ranked #1 in rushing defense with a 65 yard ave.
>> Add to this the fact that they are also #1 in sacks with 34 and 262
>> yards lost, and #1 in tackles for loss 68 for 345 yards.  NU's 3rd
>> down defense efficiency is at 25.6% (23 conversions on 90 attempts)
>> - 3rd in the nation.
>>
>> Just for kicks, I wonder how Bo Pelini's defense is doing down at LSU?
>>
>> Scott in NY
>
> Nebraska is giving up 289.1 yds/game (#12) and LSU is giving up
> 290.6 yds/game (#14).  That's pretty much a dead heat, but it also
> depends on how well a team's offense is playing and which opponents
> have been played.

If you look at the NCAA site at:

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?div=4&site=org

You can find the offensive averges for each of our and LSU's opponents. 
It's probably best to drop Maine out of consideration for the Huskers:

LSU (290)		Neb (289, w/o Maine 318)

ASU  519		Wake 362
Ten  336		Pitt 347
MiSt 273		ISU  330
Vand 382		TT   573
Fla  382		Bay  336

Ave  379 		Ave  389

LSU is holding its opps to 78 ypg less than they average, compared to 71 
for the Huskers, so slight edge to LSU.  Another stat is to check is 
turnovers created and we lead 12-8 (not counting 1 vs Maine).  You'd think 
we'd be up in defensive scoring (4 TDs or 3 TDs w/o Maine), but LSU 
actually has 3 defensive TDs and a safety, so that's about even.

You can also look at points allowed vs opponent's average points scored. 
I get enough requests for that kind of stat that I have a page on my 
website dedicated to it (following numbers are updated thru this week):

http://www.bapi.net/football/college.dif.html

Nebraska's opponents typically win 32-21, but are losing to Nebraska by an 
average of 24-14 this season.  The defense is allowing 18 points less 
(-18) than what opponents normally score and this ranks behind only Ohio 
State (-23), for #2 overall.  LSU's number of -8 is good (0 is average), 
but not outstanding.  Our offense is a +3, which is barely above average, 
while LSU is +11, a pretty good number.  The best offenses are Texas Tech 
(+35), USC (+24) and Louisville (+22).  Our opponent this week, Missouri, 
is +14/+5, meaning a pretty good offense and a somewhat below average 
defense.

If you sum up the offensive rating - defensive rating, you get the 
following top 5:

Texas Tech    +35/ -6 = +41
USC           +24/-12 = +36
Texas         +21/-15 = +36
Virginia Tech +16/-14 = +30
Ohio State     +6/-23 = +29

Nebraska's overall number of +21 (+3/-18) is tied for the 12th with Notre 
Dame and Michigan.  It's an interesting, and simplistic, version of a 
rating system, but has the advantage of splitting offense and defense into 
two parts.

> One measure of how well the offense is doing to help the defense
> (regardless of how many yards they make or much they score) is to
> look at the number of defensive plays per game.  Nebraska has allowed
> 1735 yds in 418 plays in six games while LSU has allowed 1453 yds in
> 341 plays in five games.  That works out to 69.67 plays per game for
> NU and 68.2 plays per game for LSU.  Again, about a dead heat.
> Neither NU's nor LSU's offense is in the top 50 offensively.

I'm not sure how number of plays matters, aside from possibly looking at 
yards per play.

> LSU has played three ranked teams, ASU #15 now unranked, Tennessee
> #10 now #17, and Florida #11 now #18.  Nebraska has played one ranked
> team, Texas Tech, now #10.  Sagarin has LSU's schedule-to-date ranked
> #6 and NU's schedule-to-date ranked #82.  The edge here is to LSU,
> which has played a much tougher schedule than NU has.  (That said,
> one bad day against Texas Tech could result in enough yards for two
> games.)  LSU has two more ranked teams on its schedule, #16 Auburn and
> #5 Alabama.  Nebraska has one of its softest schedules in years.

The schedule is soft.

> Given that LSU's schedule and the fact that the offense is not playing
> that well, it appears Pellini's defense is doing very well.  NU's
> defense also has been playing very well, despite an offense that isn't
> very productive, but against an easier schedule.
>
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