[Husker] caution

[Jeff Volk]

>>>1) UT has had Top 10 blue-chip recruiting classes for YEARS and where has
>>>it gotten them ?



I am a little confused as to why people think that UT has gone nowhere as a result of their recruiting. (DISCLAIMER: I HATE UT WITH A PASSION!)

The fact of the matter is that since Mack Brown took over in 1998, UT has finished ranked in the Top 6 of the Final AP Poll 3 times, all in the last 4 seasons. Over that 7 season span they have finished outside of the Top 20 in the Final AP Poll only 1 time, that coming in 1999, Brown's 2nd season. Overall, they have a Final AP Poll Average Ranking of 10.8 over the 7 seasons Brown has been in Austin. 

By contrast, over the same period Nebraska has finished in the Top 8 of Final AP Poll 3 times but has also been NOT RANKED at all 2 times. If you give them a generous estimated ranking of 30 for the 2002 season and of 45 for the 2004 season that gives them a Final AP Poll Average Ranking of 18.8 over the same 7 season span.

If you look at 2002 to 2004, the only years for which I can find the final Rivals.com complete recruiting rankings, you will find:

Texas:

AP Poll...2004-#5, 2003-#12, 2002-#6...Average Ranking-#7.6
Rivals.com...2004-#10, 2003-#15, 2002-#1...Average Ranking-#8.6

Nebraska:

AP Poll...2004-#45(Estimate), 2003-#19, 2002-#30(Estimate)...Average Ranking-#31.3
Rivals.com...2004-#27, 2003-#42, 2002-#40...Average Ranking -#36.3

It is interesting that given the averages, both teams finished, on average, a little bit higher in the Final AP Poll than their recruiting classes in the Final Rivals.com Rankings.

Just for fun I did the same thing for 2 teams that have dominated college football in the new century - Oklahoma and USC. Interestingly enough, I found that their teams also performed to a higher average AP ranking than what was their average recruiting class rank. 

Oklahoma:

AP Poll...2004-#3, 2003-#3, 2002-#5...Average Ranking-#3.6
Rivals.com...2004-#8, 2003-#4, 2004-#7...Average Ranking #6.3

USC:

AP Poll...2004-#1, 2003-#1, 2002-#4...Average Ranking-#2
Rivals.com...2004-#1, 2003-#3, 2002-#13...Average Ranking-#5.6

What does all of this mean. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Although it does tend to suggest that while higher recruiting class rankings do not necessarily mean National Championships, the rankings in general can somewhat predict that your average AP Ranking will be higher - not lower. 

Mainly I am just excited by the recruits and hope that they pan out. Will 1 great recruiting year turn the Huskers back around? NO. Will a couple? Maybe. Do they have a better shot at finishing higher in the Final AP Poll as their Final Rivals.com Ranking increases? A very SMALL statistical sample might suggest yes. 

GO BIG RED!!!

Now going back to work...

Jeffrey Volk